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000
FXUS64 KLUB 190441
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.AVIATION...
RETREATING SURFACE DRY-LINE SHOULD HOLD VERY CLOSE TO KCDS-KLBB
LINE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEN A VEERED DRY WESTERLY WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A WEAK
PACIFIC COLD FRONT PULLS THE SURFACE TROUGH A BIT FURTHER EAST
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SURFACE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW WIND SPEEDS NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTION FROM
BLOWING DUST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANCE AT REDEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT. THE TORNADO WATCH
WAS CANCELLED FOR THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM.
MOST TTU MESONET SITES HAVE DROPPED BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

AVIATION...
CURRENT SMALL AREA OF TSRA PASSING AROUND KCDS WITH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT WITHIN A FEW MINUTES
OF 00Z. RETAINED VCTS FOR AN HOUR THOUGH WILL BE WATCHING POTENTIAL
FOR REDEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KCDS THAT COULD STRENGTHEN IN THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOVE SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE GONE BY MID EVENING WITH DRY
VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. FLOW WILL VEER TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE FA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THANKS TO STRONG HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK OFF THE CAPROCK. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THOUGH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WERE HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES. THIS EXTREME HEAT AND DECENT MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH THE
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING 2000-3000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO LAKE ALAN HENRY LINE. SFC
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT GIVEN THE
STRONG HEATING AND RESULTING WEAKENING CAP...IT STILL APPEARS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EAST ROW OF
COUNTIES...THOUGH MAY NOT STAY IN THE CWA FOR LONG. STILL...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE SEVERE MENTION FOR THE EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EAST OR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER
TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS INCREASES. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIM
THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEYOND 06Z.

BEYOND THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES...HOT AND VERY DRY AIR AS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPROCK RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
FURTHER ELEVATING THE FIRE DANGER. THE LEAD WAVE WITHIN THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND THIS PULL
THE DRYLINE EVER FURTHER EAST...OUT OF THE FA...WITH WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
PLAN FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS SUCH...THE CONTINUED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON
THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INCREASE. STILL...DO EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THEY MAY COME UP A BIT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...AND RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR ON THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE
AREA EXPERIENCING HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE DRYLINE
PUSHES FURTHER EAST THAN TODAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WINDS WILL BE ON
THE FENCE REGARDING MEETING THE RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT RH VALUES
WILL BE A SLAM DUNK...DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OR
ALL OF THE FA. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
/AND MOSTLY LIKELY LONGER DURATION OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE/
BUT CURRENT RUN OF MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES. DID NOT GET CUTE ATTM AND INSTEAD DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF/WHERE A RFD AND RFW WILL BE MOST
APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  88  54  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         56  92  56  89  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     58  92  58  90  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     60  93  57  91  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       61  94  60  92  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  92  59  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    63  94  60  93  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     64  96  62  93  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          64  97  64  95  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     70 102  65  98  62 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

99/99/05