National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KLUB 141621
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1121 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
AFTER EXTENSIVE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. THESE STORMS PRODUCED NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH FAIRLY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THIS WARM CORE LOW
IS STILL HIKING IN THE BIG BEND BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A NORTH
AND EASTWARD JOG LATER TODAY. HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE LIKELY
ALTHOUGH IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOCALIZED AND NOT WIDESPREAD.


UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS STILL LACKING WITH ONLY THE MID LEVEL LOW
TO LIFT THE MOIST AIR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL STREAMING INTO
THE AREA WITH THETA-E VALUES CONTINUING TO INCREASE. DEW POINTS
WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S AREA WIDE WITH IDENTICAL DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM. THE 12Z RAOB FROM KMAF IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL PEAK HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED WITH ANOMALIES CLOSE
TO 200 PERCENT. TOTAL INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1500
J/KG WITH VERY LOW NCAPES. ORDINARILY THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK
UPDRAFTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDS
WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER ARE ALSO WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORESEEN IN MODELS. MODEL HODOGRAPHS BY THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKE AN
ATROCIOUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAMS RUNNING GAME...IT GOES NO WHERE.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

SHORT TERM...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING CONSISTED OF UA LOWS DOMINATING
THE NW PACIFIC AND NERN CONUS...WITH UA RIDING DOMINATING THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NW PACIFIC LOW WAS TREKKING ENE
TOWARDS MONTANA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS AIDING IN SHIFTING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE EAST WITH TIME. AS SUCH...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
THAT WAS ONCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HAS NOW MOVED TO ACROSS
FAR ERN TEXAS/SERN OKLAHOMA/NRN LOUISIANA....AND MAKING WAY FOR AN
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE SAID RIDGE.
THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE N NEWRD FROM NERN
MEXICO/FAR SWRN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NERN
SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. A 20-30 KT LLJ COMBINED WITH THE
NEARING SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS ENCOURAGED DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S PER 07Z METARS...AND IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND MOVED ACROSS TERRY AND YOAKUM COUNTIES LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLIER
THIS MORNING /THE PRECIP WAS NOTED ACROSS SERN NEW MEXICO/.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS ENVELOPED THE REGION.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THANKS TO THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORY OF THE EMBEDDED WEAKNESS. AS
SUCH...PROGGED SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED TOP-DOWN MOISTENING /PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.20-1.60 INCHES/ INITIALLY ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING... TO ACROSS THE ERN/NERN ZONES BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE /20-35 KTS/ WHICH SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES
LESS THAN 700 J/KG COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DOES NOT
SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE EARLIER
PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO RAIN CHANCES
/THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS/. HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED POPS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SRN...CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES. AS RAIN CHANCES SHIFT ENE...PROGGED
SOUNDINGS PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS /AND PERHAPS FOG WHERE ITS
RAIN-FREE/.

RAINFALL AND ANTICIPATED PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL PROMOTE COOLER
TEMPS TODAY /LOWER TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/...WITH MILD YET
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS /LOWER TO UPPER 60S/.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE FCST AREA SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING ONE LAST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY
BLEEDING OVER INTO THE AFTN...AND FAVORING THE ROLLING PLAINS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP GREATLY
AFFECTS POPS. 00Z MODEL RUNS WANT TO PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD THE SRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND SHOULD FUTURE RUNS PUSH IT FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WOULD PROBABLY SEE RAIN CHANCES GO WITH IT. EVEN IF THAT
LATTER SCENARIO OCCURS...MAY SEE STORMS ROLL OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ERN NM WITH MODEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST UPSLOPE
REGIME IN THE LOW LEVELS. TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING THAT SCENARIO
AGAIN AS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS IT WILL STILL BE FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT AND FAIRLY MOIST. ATTM THAT COULD BE THE LAST
OF THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK AS THE FLAT RIDGE ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AND STRENGTHEN. AS IT DOES SHOULD SEE TEMPS
INCREASE AS WELL BACK TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AFTER
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MONDAY WITH THE FRONT AND TUESDAY WITH
UPSLOPE SELY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  63  90  65  94 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         86  65  89  68  94 /  20  30  30  10  10
PLAINVIEW     85  65  89  68  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     83  66  90  68  95 /  50  40  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       83  67  90  69  95 /  50  50  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   82  66  91  68  94 /  60  40  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    83  66  90  69  95 /  60  50  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     92  69  90  71  97 /  20  50  40  10  10
SPUR          87  68  88  70  96 /  40  60  30  10  10
ASPERMONT     91  70  90  71  96 /  50  60  40  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01