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000
FXUS64 KLUB 180459
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE DECK EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL CREATE BREEZY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT
KLBB. FOG AND LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO IN DOUBT AT KCDS BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE AT LIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS STILL EXIST. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

AVIATION...
FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORMING JUST OFF THE SURFACE
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED AT KLBB. THE LOW LEVEL
JET MAY ALSO KEEP LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS FROM AFFECTING THE KCDS
TERMINAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT IS ON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE BACKED FLOW...IMPROVED MOISTURE AND THE
LATE CLEARING OF THE STRATUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
THIS POINT. AS OF THIS WRITING...RADAR WAS SHOWING THE DRYLINE
NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSITIONED FROM NEAR WAYSIDE TO MCADOO TO
DICKENS...THEN BENDING MORE EASTWARD. UP TO THIS POINT ONLY A VERY
LIMITED CUMULUS FIELD WAS SEEN LOCALLY ALONG THE DRYLINE /IN FLOYD
COUNTY/...WITH MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT NOTED ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR
KBKD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KBBD. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE LATTER AREA FOR ROBUST SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD FIRM
LOCALLY. OBVIOUSLY...IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN GET GOING
HERE...STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0-6 KM SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH PROSPECTS FOR CI ARE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.

THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD TONIGHT BUT WILL ALSO INTERACT
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE BEST
MOISTURE FLUX TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ANOTHER SHORTER
BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM FAR NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ACROSS THE CAPROCK LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL NWP MODELS DO INDICATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS LIFT WITH THIS
WAVE MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE DRY IN THE DEEP
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM ANY
ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DRAW CLOSER ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT
AND PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
MEAN INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO
SHARPEN SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY BE A BIT DELAYED...AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES...BUT ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT TO
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESIDE WITH BREEZY LATE
NIGHT WINDS. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...WHILE LOWS OUT EAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE TOASTY...RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
100 DEGREES OFF THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
EARLY TO MIDWEEK UPPER PATTERN TO SEE A TROUGH OVER THE NRN AND
CNTL PLAINS MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO THE MS VALLEY WITH FLAT TO WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY THAT PATTERN
THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING MONDAY.
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COME TUESDAY AS THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS EWD WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH. AFTER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS LATTER FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO IN THE
END THE UPPER RIDGE MAY WIN OUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWING IN THE 12Z RUNS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THE FCST AREA TO BE JUST ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. FURTHERMORE THE NEAR-MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER WWD AND
POTENTIAL FOR THE DRYLINE TO STAY FARTHER WEST EACH DAY...POSSIBLY
AS FAR BACK AS THE NM STATE LINE. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH STILL
RATHER UNCERTAIN REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL AS A WHOLE PATTERN
SUGGESTS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BACK TO THE WEST.

FIRE WEATHER...
WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S PUSHING RH VALUES
DOWN TOWARD 5 PERCENT. ONLY QUESTION MARK WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESIDE AROUND THE LOW END OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW
AFTN/EVNG AND LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAKE A FINAL CALL ON WHETHER TO
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING OR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  93  55  89  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         61  95  56  91  52 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     61  96  56  93  53 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     62  97  58  93  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       65  98  58  95  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   62  95  59  93  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    62  98  59  95  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     68 100  61  98  61 /  10  20  10   0  10
SPUR          66 102  58  99  61 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     72 101  69 101  64 /  10  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

05/99