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000
FXUS64 KLUB 161358
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
858 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.AVIATION...
FOG AND STRATUS CLEARING RAPIDLY AT KLBB. QUICK TAF AMENDMENT TO
CLEAR OUT TEMPO GROUP AND ALSO TO ADJUST FOR A LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZE THROUGH THE MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

AVIATION...
STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE AT KLBB THOUGH THE CITY REMAINS
CAVU AS OF THIS WRITING...THUS...THE FIELD IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE.
THESE REDUCTIONS ARE BEHIND A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD WASH OUT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY LATE MORNING.
THEREAFTER...PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY AT KLBB. CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS AFFECTING THE AIRPORT ONLY ABOUT 10-20 PCT AT THIS TIME
THUS PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE TAF. WITH THE HIGH CLOUD BASES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIKELY
UNDER ANYTHING THAT PRECIPITATES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...
WHILE MODEST RIDGING IS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WREAKED HAVOC NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX...SMALL SCALE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES FROM COLORADO OUT TO EL PASO.  IN COMPARING RAOBS WITH
00Z INITIALIZATION...NWP SEEMS TO HAVE ANALYZED THIS FEATURE JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN WHAT THE OBS SUGGEST IS CLOSER TO REALITY.  GIVEN AN
HOUR OR TWO SLOWER...THIS WILL PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE PANHANDLE THENCE OUT TOWARD THE BIG BEND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS IN ALL THREE MAJOR NWP SOLUTIONS
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPWARD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA.  AT 2AM THIS BDRY WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM MULESHOE TO LUBBOCK TO JAYTON.  THIS PLUS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD END UP NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY
SUNRISE AND MIX EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT LIKELY NOT NEARLY AS
FAR AS YESTERDAY...PERHAPS ENDING UP ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-27
CORRIDOR.  WESTERN EXTENT OF THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ZONES WHERE MUCAPE OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG WILL EXIST.  IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION MAY BE QUITE
NARROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.  SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY QUITE ANEMIC
WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT.
GIVEN ANGLE BETWEEN MID LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE FAVORED. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BUT ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER ALL...IT IS MAY IN
WEST TEXAS. FARTHER WEST...SOME VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
OUT WEST...THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WE WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS TOMORROW...THANKS TO AN EASTWARD
TRANSLATING UA RIDGE AND 850 MB TEMPS AOA 30 DEGREES. THE TEMP AT
KLBB IS FORECAST TO BE 99 DEGREES WHICH IS ONLY 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD SET IN 1996 /COULD BE A CLOSE CALL/. CONCURRENTLY A BROAD UA
TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ESE TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...WHICH
WILL VEER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. AS SUCH...SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK
WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SW WHICH WILL SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE
SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE TOMORROW GIVEN A STRONG CAP...BUT THIS APPEARS TO NOT BE THE
CASE FOR SATURDAY.  AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE TREKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THUS NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL COOL TEMPS OFF JUST A BIT /LOWER TO
UPPER 90S/ BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE A DEEPENING SFC LOW NW OF THE
REGION LEADING TO BREEZY S TO SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND AS SUCH THE
DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BY THE AFTN. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...DUE TO ABOVE NORM TEMPS...RHS 5-15 PERCENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY IS IMPROVED GIVEN THE
EXPECTED BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND THE CAP APPEARS WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO AN EXITING UA RIDGE AND HENCE SUBSIDENCE BEING
LESS INFLUENTIAL. MODEL RUNS GENERALLY BREAK OUT STORMS LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING /AFTER 18Z/ COINCIDING WITH A WEAKENING CAP.
SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.0-3.0 KJ/KG COMBINED WITH 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ELEVATED STORMS
REACHING STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS
THIS QPF SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS.

AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE OF THE BROAD UA DISTURBANCE EJECTS NE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS TO FILTER ACROSS THE CWA...AND THEREFORE SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL NOT COOL US DOWN MUCH /80S AND 90S/ BUT WILL AID IN
ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY WRLY WINDS WILL ENSUE ON MONDAY...MAKING
FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY /80S AND 90S/. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL
BE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SEND
DOWN ITS ASSOCIATED FROPA THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING /PER THE ECMWF/ OR HANGING UP ACROSS THE SERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE IT WASHES OUT /PER THE GFS/. THUS...TEMPS WILL
EITHER BY RELATIVELY WARM OR SLIGHTLY COOLER IF FOLLOWING THE GFS
AND ECMWF RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF ATTM /HIGHS IN
THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S/ AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO IS A
NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS CURRENT GFS RUN...VERSUS THE MORE
PERSISTENT ECMWF. UA RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AND
WARMTH WILL RESUME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  58  96  60  93 /  10  10   0  10   0
TULIA         91  60  98  62  94 /  20  20   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     93  61  98  64  95 /  20  20   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  60  98  64  95 /  10  10   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       95  62 100  67  96 /  20  20   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   96  58  96  64  94 /  10  10   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    98  60  98  64  94 /  10  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     91  63  96  67  98 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          94  66 100  65  96 /  20  20  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     95  69 102  68  98 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ023-024-029-030-035-036.

&&

$$

99/99/05