Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 140538
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1238 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

18Z upper air analysis depicts a well-defined vorticity lobe
rotating over eastern Utah, with a series of smaller-scale
perturbations embedded within the mid- and high-level jet streaks
rounding the base of the amplifying trough that were ejecting into
the west/southwestern High Plains. The 12Z objectively analyzed
upper air maps sampled these jet streaks at 50 kt and 100 kt at 500
mb and 250 mb, respectively; and these jet streaks were emerging
over West Texas as per recent water vapor and visible satellite
imagery, evident by the cirrus streaks advecting northeastward on
the southern periphery of the associated dry slot. At the surface, a
lee cyclone was analyzed across far northwestern Oklahoma, with the
circulation east of PYX, and north of GAG and WWR. The dryline
extends southward from this lee cyclone, where a distinct bulge is
present on Oklahoma Mesonet, West Texas Mesonet (WTM), and METAR
data; and the dryline bends southwestward into the southeastern
Rolling Plains where its diffusivity increases per recent dewpoint
and wind observations on the WTM data (e.g., flow remains veered on
either side of the dryline with a near-20 deg F difference in
dewpoints from Aspermont to SPS). A slow-moving cold front was also
analyzed to the southwest of the lee cyclone, extending across the
OK PH, the far northern TX PH, and into northeastern New Mexico.
Further west, dewpoints have lowered into the upper teens across far
southeastern New Mexico per recent METAR and WTM data, where a
localized corridor of higher winds has been observed beneath the
northern edge of the cirrus shield in congruence with the dry slot.
The ongoing Wind Advisory for the southwestern South Plains remains
intact with an expectation for the strongest winds to occur within
this corridor by the late afternoon hours based on the latter
analysis and recent trends in high-resolution guidance.

Dewpoints were lowered for the remainder of the afternoon and
evening across the Caprock and Rolling Plains as the corresponding
jet streaks nose into the south-central Great Plains. It is possible
that advisory-level winds occur to the northeast of the current Wind
Advisory; however, spatial extension is not warranted at this time.
Sustained, southwesterly winds between 20-30 mph with gusts near 40
mph will occur by the late afternoon hours for all of the Caprock
with slightly lesser speeds in the Rolling Plains. The Red Flag
Warning remains in effect through 14/01Z (8 PM CDT) area-wide.
Surface winds will diminish after dark while also veering westward
as cyclogenesis continues into the nighttime hours as the leading
shortwave trough ejects over the central Great Plains and the cold
front moves slowly eastward. There are some indications of a
secondary cyclogenesis occurring in the vicinity of the extreme
southeastern TX PH tonight, which would keep winds backed to the
southwest in the Rolling Plains. Otherwise, the dryline is forecast
to slowly translate westward after dark, with the westerly surface
winds (albeit weakening) and superposition of the strengthening 850
mb jet stream atop the sharpening boundary keeping it east of most
of the CWA tonight less the southeastern Rolling Plains. This will
result in chilly-to-mild night from west-to-east across the CWA,
respectively. The CWA will remain beneath the belt of amplified,
cyclonic flow heading into tomorrow as the closed low matures and
begins to become cut-off over the Desert Southwest. Vertical mixing
heights are forecast to be much lower compared to today, with the
boundary-layer becoming weakly capped near 700 mb, as the leading
shortwave trough and its attendant jet streaks move northeast of the
CWA. Surface winds will be much weaker, at around 10 mph, with high
temperatures around 5-7 degrees cooler as well while remaining very
dry within this pre-frontal airmass.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Currently, a strengthening upper level trough is slowly moving east
ahead of a potent upper level trough beginning to situate into the
Desert Southwest. As the trough becomes stagnant, upper level
winds will shift southwesterly and remain in that direction going
into next week keeping the mid and upper levels dry for a good
portion of this forecast period. As the ridge ahead encompasses
the East Coast and the central US, another ridge will move into
the Pacific Northwest allowing the trough to cut off the main jet
axis. This will set up a notable rex block pattern across the
western CONUS for this weekend going into next week.

On Friday, surface winds are forecast to be northeasterly wrapping
towards the strong surface low situated in the southwest bringing
remnant shallow moisture from the central US and keeping
temperatures across the Caprock cooler. Model soundings show
shallow condensation in the low/mid-levels. Despite PoPs pushing
into the 70s across most of our CWA, the shallow moisture layer
and minimal CAPE values should keep rain totals light to moderate
with peak precipitation during the day before tapering off by
nightfall.

On Saturday, the upper-level pattern will continue with surface
winds staying northeasterly. However, low-level moisture return will
be slightly greater in the southeast portions of our CWA. With
MUCAPE values heading towards 300 J/Kg, thunder may be possible for
these counties. Otherwise precipitation will be light with PoPs
generally between 40-50 percent.

For Sunday and Monday, precipitation chances are low with PoPs
peaking at 30 percent. Sunday night into Monday, the NBM forecasts
temperatures to fall near freezing. However, the GFS and the ECM
both have temperatures remaining well above freezing due to the
consistent cloud cover Monday morning. As models trend warmer, the
current thinking is that any precipitation will be light rain,
therefore the earlier potential for snow was removed.

Going into next week, both the ECM and GFS show the upper-level
trough retrograding into SOCAL before eventually being propelled
towards the central US by a strong Aleutian Low that will break the
Rex High in the Pacific Northwest. Long range models show the
trough reaching the Panhandle with the potential for decent
moisture return by Thursday.

PND

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period at all three TAF
sites. West northwest winds will veer to the north northeast tomorrow
evening following a cold front. Winds will begin to ramp up to
around 10 to 15 knots towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM CDT this evening
for the entire area of responsibility. Critical fire weather
conditions will peak in the mid-to-late afternoon hours in concert
with the overlap of the highest winds and lowest relative humidity
(RH). Sustained, southwesterly winds between 25-35 mph with gusts up
to 45 mph are expected across areas within the Wind Advisory, while
winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are expected elsewhere
across the Caprock and Rolling Plains amidst dry fuels. Extreme fire
behavior is not expected today due to expected magnitude of the
winds (i.e., below High Wind criteria). Winds will diminish near and
after dark while veering westward with speeds near 10 mph tonight.
RH recovery above 50 percent is expected across the Caprock and
Rolling Plains despite the dryline remaining east of the Rolling
Plains tonight. Winds will remain light and out of the west
tomorrow, and will shift to the north tomorrow evening following the
passage of a cold front. No fire weather concerns tomorrow due to
the weak winds.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...11


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