Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 231739
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1239 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

An upper ridge will track across the area today. Mostly sunny skies
in the morning will give way to increased cloud cover in the
afternoon ahead of its training trough. A relatively strong low-
level jet combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient as
low pressure develops over the Rockies will bring elevated southerly
winds by this afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph are possible with the
highest winds over the far southwest TX Panhandle, closest to the
aforementioned low. High temperatures will warm into the mid-to-
upper 60s. Winds will remain gusty through the overnight hours into
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Little change to the forecast this morning in regards to our high
wind event tomorrow. Sunday morning the shortwave will be located
over southern AZ/NM but quickly take on a negative tilt as it lifts
northeast across West Texas. As it does so it will bring jet
streaks across our forecast area with 700 mb winds of 50 kts and
600 mb winds of 55 kts. Therefore as soon as the morning inversion
breaks these stronger winds will begin to mix down to the surface
as we are expected to mix up to around 600 mb. Lee cyclogenesis
in southeast Colorado will lead to the development of a 980 mb
surface low hence our sustained winds will also be quite strong
with 30-45 mph expected. Based on the continued high confidence in
this high wind event we have gone ahead and upgraded the entire
High Wind Watch area to a Warning. For King, Kent, and Stonewall
counties we have also issued a Wind Advisory as sustained winds
around 30 mph and wind gusts up to 55 mph are expected. These
strong winds will also lead to blowing dust across much of the
Caprock and into the Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas
Panhandle. The other concern for Sunday is the fact that a dryline
will shift east through our forecast area through the day hence
much drier air will be in place for the afternoon leading to the
potential for critical fire weather conditions. Additional details
can be found in the fire weather discussion below.

Winds will diminish after sunset but remain breezy for much of the
night as the tight surface pressure gradient remains over the area.
A surface cold front is expected to drop south into the area Monday
morning bringing colder air into the forecast area. This front
combined with a continuation of upper-level troughing may also
result in some light showers over portions of the area Monday. This
troughing will remain in place through mid-week with guidance
indicating a few potentials for additional light showers through
the middle of the week. Upper-level ridging will then approach
the region Thursday and remain overhead through Saturday which
will help to boost temperatures through the end of next week. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

MVFR CIGs are expected to continue at LBB and PVW for the next
several hours before dissipating late this afternoon, with VFR
expected at all sites this evening through late tonight. MVFR
CIGs are then expected to develop at CDS near sunrise on Sunday
with a few SHRA possible as well. There is a small chance of a
brief period of MVFR at LBB and PVW on Sunday morning as well, but
confidence in this occurring is too low for TAF mention at this
time. Additionally, LLWS may also develop near sunrise
particularly at LBB, but surface winds will likely be strong
enough to mitigate this threat. Towards the end of this TAF
period, winds will strengthen significantly with visibility
reductions from BLDU likely. Very strong winds with gusts to and
above 50 kt will then impact all terminals just beyond the scope
of this TAF cycle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Fire weather concerns will increase on Sunday as strong winds move
into the forecast area. Sustained southwesterly winds of 30-45 mph
and wind gusts up to 65 mph are expected Sunday afternoon. A
dryline will also shift east Sunday morning bringing much drier
air to the region with relative humidity values near 15 percent
by the afternoon. These low relative humidity values combined with
the strong winds will result in RFTI values of 4-6 across most of
the area. There has also been some guidance this morning
indicating high based showers may develop over the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle which could lead to erratic wind
directions if these were to develop. The main limiting factor for
this event is near to above normal fuel moisture, recent rainfall,
and the recent green-up in fuels noted across parts of the area
especially the Rolling Plains over the past few days.

Based on these limiting factors we will maintain the Fire Weather
Watch as is this morning in the hopes that we can get a better
handle on the fuel states today to determine which areas will need
to be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Regardless, with such strong
wind gusts and above normal grass loading any fires that develop
will have high resistance to control so a Fire Danger Statement
will be required for any area not upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.
A cold front will move south through the area Monday morning so
any fires that remain ongoing at the time will experience a
northerly wind shift.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for TXZ021>025-027>030-033>035-039-040.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>037-
039>042.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ038-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...30


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