Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 121728
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Increased 1000-500 mb thicknesses behind a mid/upper level
shortwave trough moving eastward across the central Plains in
combination with surface flow veered to west-southwest will push
temperatures warmer this afternoon with highs well into the 70s to
lower 80s. Wind speeds are likely to be on par or just a bit
stronger than yesterday, although likely not quite as strong as
previously forecast as the surface pressure gradient looks to be
relatively weak this afternoon and mid level flow overhead modest.
Low level flow will remain veered overnight helping keeping
temperatures on the mild side in line with MOS and NBM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Flow aloft will strengthen considerably on Wednesday as a potent
shortwave dives southward over the Great Basin within a broader area
of longwave troughing which will continue to expand over the western
CONUS. The net result for our area will be a deepening surface
trough over the TX Panhandle on Wednesday afternoon which will
result in a more widespread zone of stronger westerly surface
flow compared to earlier this week, with sustained winds mainly in
the 20 to 30 mph range. Also in contrast to early week will be
the positioning of a modest 50-60 kt H5 jet streak over the South
Plains region in addition to 30-35 kt of H7 SW flow which coupled
with deep mixing should foster some stronger gusts up to 50 mph,
especially across the far SW TX Panhandle with slightly more
modest winds across the rest of the forecast area. These
conditions after another day of drying will easily support
widespread near-critical to critical fire weather conditions, and
a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area
for Wednesday.

After a less windy and still mild day on Thursday, a strong cold
front will bring breezy and cool conditions back to the region
Friday. A stretch of unsettled weather still looks likely Friday
through the weekend as a rex block develops over the Pacific coast
and a deep cutoff low sets up to our west. With better low level
moisture in place behind the cold front, this setup supports a few
days of rain chances with the best likelihood of a few hundredths
of an inch of rainfall currently appearing to be on Friday as a
zone of broad isentropic lift pivots overhead. We could even see a
few snowflakes briefly mixed in across the SW TX Panhandle early
Friday but in general temperatures look likely to support an all-
rain event with minimal impacts. Beyond Friday, uncertainty in
additional precipitation chances increases as much will depend on
the finer details of the evolution of the cutoff low which cannot
be resolved at this lead time. Given the pattern and large
ensemble spread, see no reason to deviate from blended guidance at
this time with low rain chances and cooler temperatures
continuing into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. W-SW winds
turn more S-SW this evening, then back to the W-SW Wednesday
morning. Winds will also increase during the day Wednesday,
likely becoming sustained around 22-26 kt through much of the
afternoon, bringing some cross-winds to (particularly N-S)
runways. Although this is outside of the 18Z TAF forecast, we did
hint at the increase in wind speed at the end of the TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Temperatures will warm a little further over yesterday`s highs which
in turn will result in relative humidity falling into a range from
10 to 15 percent for all of the forecast area except for the
southeastern quarter. However, there is concern about wind speeds
this afternoon. Surface pressure gradient looks to be relatively
weak as the forecast area is caught in a bit of an odd mid/upper
pattern with a sharp upper level trough moving over eastern Kansas
and Nebraska this afternoon followed closely be low-amplitude
ridging over western Kansas and Nebraska but also with a weak short
wave trough south of the ridge across eastern New Mexico. This
somewhat convoluted mid level pattern will end up with a bit of a
convoluted surface pressure pattern. Meanwhile, the moderate mid
level jet south of the first upper trough will shift to the east of
the forecast area by afternoon leaving weaker flow aloft to mix down
this afternoon. All told wind speeds are the limiting factor today
regarding reaching critical fire weather conditions with 20 mph
looking to be the upper limit. Will cancel today`s Fire Weather
Watch and replace it with a Fire Danger Statement.

Wednesday looks much more supportive of more widespread near-
critical fire weather conditions given continued drying of fuels and
stronger west winds. Winds will be strongest across the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle on Wednesday afternoon with sustained
speeds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 50 mph expected, but sustained
winds are still expected to reach or exceed 20 mph across the rest
of the region as well. With minimum RH values near 10 percent, this
will result in RFTI values of 3 to 6 for most locations, which
combined with areas of above normal fuel loading should support the
potential for rapid fire spread. A Fire Weather Watch has therefore
been issued for the entire area on Wednesday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...33


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