000
FXUS64 KLUB 180743
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
243 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AT 07Z SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 12Z...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER FROM LAS
VEGAS TO CLOVIS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS COULD CONTINUE TO OR EVEN A
BIT AFTER 12Z WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT DRIVING THEM SEWD INTO 20 TO
30 KT ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD ABATE TOWARD
SUNRISE BUT WORTH KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION GOING AFT 12Z.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE AFTN AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z MODEL NOT INSPIRING TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH
DETAILS BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF FLAT
RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTL PLAINS...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUING WITH THE SRN BRANCH EXTENDING FROM SOCAL TO THE MID-MS
VALLEY...AND A GENERAL SELY MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS. SPECIFICS OF THAT LATTER POINT A BIT FUZZY GIVEN
THAT APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS DRIVEN WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES PERSISTING INTO THE AFTN BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVER
SELY FLOW ALREADY SEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT LOW LEVEL FLOW. ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL RUNS GIVES A
PREFERENCE TO THE GFS THAT DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS ERN
NM AND POSSIBLY WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA IN AN AREA OF PROGGED
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR OF ABOUT 35-40 KTS AND HODOGRAPHS SHOWING GOOD TURNING IN
LOWEST 3 KM SUGGEST A SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS
OF THE EVENT FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR A LINEAR MCS...ALTHOUGH THAT
LATTER PART IS NOT AS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS ATTM. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES PARTICULARLY WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP SHOWN BY THE
WRF-NAM...AND AS A RESULT WILL KEEP POPS MOSTLY IN THE 30-40 PCT
ATTM.

FCST HIGH TEMPS TRICKY FOR TODAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN PARTICULAR
WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER SUGGEST RELATIVELY COOL MOS
GUIDANCE A GOOD STARTING POINT. GOING BACK TO THE PRECIP DISCUSSION
ABOVE...THESE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY KEEPING THE CAP TOO STRONG IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...ANOTHER REASON NOT TO INCREASE POPS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE TOMORROW...AS UA RIDGING PLAGUES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AFTER TODAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLIM AS A
SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE /CENTERED CLOSE BY/ RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW. INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE TEMPS IN THE 90S /NOT OVERLY HOT/ AND STORMS BECOMING
HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UA LOW MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...WILL ENCOURAGE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SW FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY FROM THE SWRN CONUS...TO ACROSS THE
FOUR-CORNERS...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ORIENTATION OF THE
FLOW ALOFT DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FA.
HOWEVER LONG TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE UA RIDGE
SHIFTING A BIT TO THE EAST TO NEAR CENTRAL OK...WHILST A SFC TROUGH
DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM TAKING SHAPE EACH AFTN-NIGHT
WED-SUN. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THE HELP OF TOPOGRAPHY AND SFC
CONFLUENCE PROVIDED BY THE SF TROUGH...STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME. WITH
ADEQUATE SWRLY MEAN FLOW...STORMS COULD CLIP THE FAR WRN AND NWRN
ZONES. THIS OF COURSE WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH...AND THEREFORE ITS TOO EARLY TO BE
CERTAIN ABOUT ITS EXACT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION. WILL HOLD ON TO 10-13
PERCENT ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES...THUS MAINTAINING SILENT WX
GRIDS ATTM. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UA RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL PROVE DIFFICULT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  63  93  63  94 /  30  40  10  10  10
TULIA         84  65  91  66  95 /  30  40  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     85  66  92  66  95 /  30  40  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     86  68  95  68  96 /  30  30   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       86  68  94  68  96 /  30  30   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   88  70  97  68  97 /  30  20   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    86  70  96  67  97 /  30  30   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     88  68  93  69  98 /  20  30  10  10  10
SPUR          87  69  95  68  97 /  30  30  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     87  70  96  71  99 /  20  30  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29