000
FXUS64 KLUB 140456 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1156 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE HAS NOT INCREASED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS AT KLBB
AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR THIS CYCLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT KLBB COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...
THIS AFTERNOON THE CWA IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LVL RIDGE OVER
THE 4-CORNERS AND AN OLD CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
AT THE SFC...MOISTURE WAS JUST BEGINNING TO RETURN TO SOUTH TEXAS
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE NRN GULF
COAST. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NEWD ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM IMPINGES ON THE WEST COAST. MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE 40S...AND LOWER 50S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. WIDELY SCT T-STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWN IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD SNEAK INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS
BEFORE 0Z. OTHERWISE WE EXPECT BETTER CHANCES TO ARRIVE TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY /NAMELY MIDDLE 80S TO
NEAR 90 OUT EAST/. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND WEAK BULK
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ON THE WEAK SIDE OVERALL...WITH AN
ISOLD THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE THIS FORECAST CYCLE INVOLVED EXPANDING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTWARD FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND NUDGING HIGH
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRI AND SAT.

LAST WEEK`S UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NWRN OLD MEXICO IS
ON TRACK TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN
WITH THIS WAVE WILL STILL BE IN ITS INFANCY ON TUESDAY...BUT
BY TUE EVENING A STOUT LLJ AND MOIST AXIS SHOULD REMEDY THE
SITUATION AND INCREASE THE CHANCE WE SEE ISOLATED TSTRMS. BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW`S
TRACK WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR OUR SERN COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...A MINOR TROUGH FARTHER NORTH WILL HAVE
PHASED WITH THE LOW AND THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE A MOSTLY NEBULOUS
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY MIDDAY BEFORE BACKDOORING
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WED NIGHT AND WASHING OUT.
A DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME MORE DEFINED IN OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SERVING TO KEEP OUR SWRN
COUNTIES DRY. IN SOME WAYS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES LAST THURSDAY
WHEN SCATTERED TSTRMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT WHERE MOISTURE DEFICITS WERE LOWER. NOT CONVINCED WE`LL SEE
THE LARGE COVERAGE OF QPF PROGGED BY THE FREQUENTLY NOISY/SENSITIVE
NAM...ALTHOUGH INCORPORATING A BROADER PERSPECTIVE FROM THE SREF
MEAN DOES WARRANT SOME PRECIP MENTION AS FAR WEST AS I-27 WITH
IMPROVED CHANCES FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ENSUES THURSDAY BEFORE BACKING SWLY
BY FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT TROUGH...THE CORE
OF WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK INTO KANSAS BY SAT EVENING LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WX THREAT FOR THAT REGION OF
THE GREAT PLAINS. IN OUR HUMBLE ABODE OF THE PLAINS...A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPILLING EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE TROUGH LOOKS
TO INHIBIT ANY REASONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. KEPT POPS SILENT FOR
NOW ON FRI AND SAT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF PROGS A REGIONALLY ACTIVE
DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS OF TEXAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING
SATURDAY`S TROUGH AND THIS COULD PROVE INTERESTING FOR PRECIP
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDED IT RETURNS SLOWLY NORTH AND POOLS
MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  85  55  89  55 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         55  86  58  89  58 /   0  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     54  86  59  91  60 /   0  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     55  84  61  93  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       57  85  61  93  62 /   0  10  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   55  84  60  92  61 /   0  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    55  85  60  94  62 /   0  10  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     60  88  63  93  64 /   0  10  20  20  20
SPUR          57  87  62  93  63 /   0  10  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     60  88  66  94  66 /   0  10  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$