Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
000
FXUS61 KLWX 160122
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
922 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south of the area this evening.
Cool high pressure briefly returns to the area Saturday before
a secondary cold front crosses Sunday into early next week. This
brings a return to below normal temperatures next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front currently extends from near the Chesapeake Bay
Bridge, southwest to the south of Washington DC, between
Manassas, Virginia and Fredericksburg, Virginia and then on
toward Charlottesville, Virginia. This front will continue to
move southward late this evening and overnight. Behind the
front, we are seeing northerly winds increase quickly, but then
diminish some while backing around to more of a west-northwest
direction. Overall, showers ahead of and along the cold front
are light and fast-moving with no lightning. These showers will
also push southeastward, while ending from northwest to
southeast. Clearing will take place overnight. Temperatures
overnight will be cooler than past nights but still relatively
mild for mid-March.
A weak surface ridge of high pressure will build over the area
during the day Saturday, resulting in sunny skies. Despite
plenty of sunshine, temperatures will be cooler Saturday. Highs
in the middle 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A secondary dry cold front will cross the area Sunday morning
bringing a few rain showers to the mountains. Temps will still
be above normal given strengthening downslope flow. It will
feel much cooler with winds gusting as high as 30-35 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the start of the work week, the synoptic pattern amplifies over
the east central CONUS as an upper trough digs into the Ohio Valley
and Mid-Atlantic Monday. A series of minor disturbances will bring a
few bursts of possible snow to the Alleghenies from Monday morning
into Tuesday night.
Gusty winds are expected with this system, hanging around the area
through midweek, though the strongest winds are expected Monday with
the strongest gradient, gusting 25-35 mph and up to around 40-45 mph
in the higher elevations along the Allegheny Front. After Monday,
winds gusting around 25-30 mph are possible each afternoon through
Wednesday, briefly diminishing overnight Tuesday night.
Temperatures drop hard by Monday, with highs 10-15 degrees lower
than Sunday and near or below normal. By midweek, temperatures
begin to moderate as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
By Friday highs in the upper 50s to low 60s return, but with
cloud cover and rain chances as the next system approaches.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few showers are moving over the TAF sites, except for MRB
where it looks as if showers are finished there. These showers
won`t pose much threat regarding sub-VFR conditions. The showers
will move on to the southeast, along with the cold front. A
quick increase in northerly wind gusts are also noted with
frontal passage, but is short-lived, as winds diminish and back
around to the WNW direction then NW direction the remainder of
the night.
A second cold front will push through the region on Sunday, but
bring very little in the way of showers. It will be mainly a dry
front. The main impact will be gusty NW winds with gusts up to
30 knots.
VFR conditions are expected Monday through Thursday with any
possible precipitation during the first half of the week limited to
the Alleghenies and as such not expected to impact the terminals.
The main concern will be gusty W/NW winds 25 to 30 kts on Monday and
20 to 25 kts on Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions will develop late tonight in a NW flow. In the
meantime, brief rapid N wind gusts will accompany the frontal
passage late this evening before becoming predominantly NW.
Winds subside Sat, but strengthen again Sat night in southerly
channeling. A SCA remains in effect to account for this
southerly channeling. Winds strengthen further Sunday out of
the NW behind a dry cold front.
Gusty and northwesterly winds are expected on Monday as a frontal
system moves through the area. By Monday morning, SCA conditions
become likely over the southern waters before quickly encompassing
all waters. Hazardous boating conditions likely continues through
Tuesday afternoon with Gale-force gusts possible at times Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>534-
537-539>541-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/KLW
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...KLW/CAS
MARINE...KLW/CAS