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829
FXUS61 KLWX 300743
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
343 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A lee-side trof will move across the area this afternoon
followed by a cold front late tonight. Ridging builds over
the region during the second half of the week. A cold front will
approach the area during the weekend and clear the area early
next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

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A cold front associated with a surface low tracking north of the
Great Lakes will cross through the forecast area this evening and
into the overnight. This will bring a slight relief to well above
normal temperatures and an increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be slightly cooler compared to
yesterday with highs in the 80s for most. Those in metro areas could
reach the low 90s again with higher elevations staying in the 70s.

Precipitation chances increase in the afternoon with storms becoming
more likely in the evening. The threat for severe weather remains
low, but not zero. Potential hazards include frequent lightning,
locally heavy rain at times, and gusty winds during storms. Storms
move out of the area around midnight, with a slight chance of
precipitation lingering throughout the overnight as the front moves
to our south. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid
60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

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By Wednesday morning, the aforementioned cold front will be lifting
northward as an upper level trough pivots over the area. This will
allow for precipitation chances to linger throughout the morning.
Recent model guidance has trended drier for Wednesday, with
conditions expected to dry out areawide in the afternoon. Surface
low pressure near the Carolinas make so an isolated rain shower
cannot be ruled out in the southernmost portions of the area.
However, chances for this remain low as dry air aloft filters into
the area.

Dry conditions continue on Thursday as high pressure builds in over
the area. A moisture starved cold front will linger over the
forecast area, but no precipitation is expected with this. High
temperatures each day will be in the 70s to mid 80s with overnight
lows dipping into the 50s to low 60s each night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

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Large scale ridge will start breaking down Saturday as
successive mid-level perturbations move across the Mid-Atlantic
region during the second half of the weekend. Moisture will pool
along a decaying/weakening frontal zone Saturday to bring the
threat of showers. This frontal zone will be slow to exit the
area with the risk of showers persisting through Sunday. Given
the slow progression of this front, isolated heavy rain totals
exceeding an inch are possible which may cause isold flooding
in the more vulnerable urban areas. The lack of instability
suggest any rainfall should be manageable. By Monday, enough
dry air appears to make it into the area and the frontal zone
dissipates to lower PoP chances allowing sunshine to bring
temperatures back up.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

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VFR conditions are expected this morning through the early
afternoon, ahead of any precipitation expected later today. A cold
front moving over the area will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to all terminals this evening and into the late
evening. Some storms may be strong, possibly producing winds gusts
of 35 knots or greater, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy
rainfall leading to reduced visibilities. Shower and thunderstorms
chances move out of all terminals between 03-04 UTC with the
exceptions being CHO where conditions dry out earlier around 01 UTC.

Outside of showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected.
Southwesterly winds today will shift to northwesterly winds on
Wednesday. Winds gust between 10-15 knots this afternoon with winds
gusting up to 20 knots at DCA. Winds diminish overnight before
remaining light on Wednesday, blowing between 5-10 knots. VFR
conditions continue on Thursday as high pressure builds in over the
area.

Showers are likely on Saturday. Cig restrictions are possible
Saturday.
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&&

.MARINE...

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A cold front will cross the waters this afternoon and into the
overnight, leading to increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms. A SCA is in effect for this afternoon and into this
evening for southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
expected. During thunderstorms, higher wind gusts of 35 knots or
greater are possible along with lightning. Special Marine Warnings
may be required as showers and thunderstorms cross the waters.

By  Wednesday morning, showers and thunderstorms will have moved
away from the waters. Winds shift to the northwest an are expected
to stay below SCA criteria. Winds shift to the south on Thursday,
but continue to remain below SCA criteria.

Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Friday through the
weekend. Showers appear likely over the weekend, but the threat
of thunderstorms remains low.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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Below is a list of record high temperatures for today, April
30th.

                                       Apr 30th
Climate Site                  Record High     Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA)     92F (1942+)     87F
Washington-Dulles (IAD)       86F (2017+)     85F
Baltimore (BWI)               92F (1910)      87F
Martinsburg (MRB)             91F (1974+)     84F

+ denotes that multiple years reached this value, but the depicted
  year is the most recent
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight
     for ANZ530>543.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS/EST
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...AVS/LFR
MARINE...AVS/LFR
CLIMATE...LWX