Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 281939
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
339 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region tonight through Saturday
with dry yet breezy conditions expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Rain exits western New England this evening. Storm off New
England and eastern Canada rapidly strengthens and the pressure
gradient over our region tightens, supporting gusty winds
developing later this evening and continuing through the night.
CLouds gradually exit through the night but could linger most
of the night from the Hudson Valley through western New
England. Lows in the 30s with mid to upper 20s higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold advection along with gusty northwest winds off the great
lakes will allow for some periods of clouds and sun on Friday.
Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lower 40s higher
terrain. Wind gusts could be 35 mph to 45 mph in some areas
during the afternoon and evening.

Still gusty Friday night and much of Saturday but with the
coldest air lifts north as upper height rise, a bit more
sunshine and better mixing. Highs in the 50s with 40s higher
terrain.

Weak northern stream upper impulse tracks out of Canada and the
Great Lakes Saturday night with limited moisture. Just
some isolated to scattered showers Saturday night, with mixed
rain and snow showers in higher terrain. The system exits Sunday
with increasing sunshine and breezy winds at times. It will be a
little cooler after a weak cold front exits, with highs in the
upper 40s to lower 50s with lower 40s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out with surface high pressure in place over the
region Sun night, which will result in dry and seasonably cool
conditions. Then a complex storm system will start to approach from
the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions on Mon with increasing clouds.
Most of the day should be dry, although there is a small chance of
some light precip for areas south/west of Albany. The bulk of the
precip looks to arrive late Mon night into Tue, as the primary
cyclone starts to track into the lower Great Lakes. High probs for
measurable precip during this time, so will mention
likely/categorical PoPs. With the initial phase of the storm, rain
looks to be the main precip type except across the highest
elevations where a rain/snow mix is possible.

Forecast confidence lowers by Tue night into Wed, as guidance
indicating a large upper closed low emerges from the upper Great
Lakes into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The surface
pattern becomes quite chaotic in the guidance Wed into Thu, as the
primary cyclone stalls near Lake Erie or Ontario and a possible
secondary(coastal) cyclone develops late Wed into Wed night.
Significant guidance spread exists with the evolution of the coastal
storm. There is potential for significant QPF, although it is far
too early for any specifics in terms of timing, amounts and precip
types. At this time, higher elevations east/west of the Hudson
Valley would have the greatest probs for rain/snow mix changing to
snow as the upper low moves overhead late Wed. Lower elevations are
expected to primarily have rain, although there could be periods of
rain/snow mix depending on the eventual cyclone track and cold air
available. Additional wrap-around/upslope precip may linger into Thu
as the storm consolidates over New England and the flow shifts to
the NW with gusty winds developing.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread low level moisture associated with a slow moving cold
front remains over the area. Mostly MVFR conditions for the
Hudson Valley sites, but KPSF is IFR.

With the slow moving cold front just to the east, there could
be some passing showers this evening with the highest
probability for showers at KPOU and KPSF. Later tonight, the
boundary will be shifting eastward and rain will be ending. All
sites should see MVFR ceilings around 2-3 kft with some
improvement at the Hudson Valley sites to VFR possible by
daybreak. There should be enough of a north to northwest breeze
in place to keep fog/mist from forming.

Tonight, winds will generally be northwest at 5-10 kts. On
Friday, northwest winds increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts
around 25 kts.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND


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