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000
FXUS64 KAMA 262354
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
654 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Southwest winds are expected to pick up into the 20 to 30 mph range
with higher gusts on Saturday as a surface low intensifies over
southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas.  The dryline is expected
to push east to very near the Oklahoma state line by late in the
afternoon.  This dryline is expected to help thunderstorms fire by
late afternoon.  These storms, if they develop in our area, will
quickly move east into Oklahoma.  A cold front will then move across
the Panhandles Saturday night and most of the area will be cooler by
about 5 to 10 degrees on Sunday.  An upper level low will move from
Colorado on Saturday through Nebraska and into South Dakota by
Sunday. A weak short wave may produce some showers in the Oklahoma
Panhandle Sunday night.

The flow aloft then becomes more zonal on Monday and Tuesday which
will encourage lee-side cyclogenesis with southwest winds increasing
into the 15 to 25 mph range by Tuesday. The southwest winds will
help make Tuesday the warmest day of this forecast.

The flow aloft then becomes more southwesterly by Wednesday ahead
of a positively tilted upper trough moving southeast through the
northern Rockies.  Upper heights will also fall a little, so high
temperatures may be just a shade cooler than Tuesday.

A cold front moves through the Panhandles Wednesday night in
association with our positively tilted trough moving into the
Central High Plains.  A few showers or thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly across the eastern Panhandles Wednesday night into
Thursday as a couple of short wave troughs move across in the
southwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

For the 00Z TAFs, southwest winds will diminish early this evening,
then increase and become gusty once again at the terminal sites by
around mid to late Saturday morning and continue through the end
of this forecast cycle.

02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A fire weather watch has been issued for all but the eastern column
of counties in the Texas Panhandle for Saturday.  Southwest winds of
20 to 30 mph with higher gusts will overspread the area by mid day.
Lowest relative humidity values are expected to be in the 10 to 15
percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  79  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  52  84  47  75 /   0  10  10  10
Boise City OK              45  73  40  69 /   0  10  10  10
Borger TX                  54  84  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              51  79  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  50  78  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               52  82  49  78 /   0  10  10   0
Dalhart TX                 44  73  39  73 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  48  79  42  73 /   0   0  10  10
Hereford TX                50  77  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                53  84  49  78 /   0  20  10   0
Pampa TX                   53  82  48  77 /   0  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                51  84  51  79 /   0  20  10   0
Wellington TX              52  85  51  80 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for TXZ001>004-006>009-011>014-016>019-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...02