829
FXUS63 KEAX 102316
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms arrive Sunday, with precipitation
  persisting into Tuesday. Severe storms are not anticipated at
  this time.

- Late next week, another round of thunderstorms Thursday into
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Shallow mid-level ridging remains in place across the Central Plains
this afternoon, with broad surface ridging continuing to slide south
and southeast across the region. WV imagery this afternoon reveals
the short wave trough dropping southeast toward Lake Superior, with
an outstretched surface front pushing toward southern MN/northern
IA. Later tonight, short range solutions continue to hint at some
shower chances in far northeastern Missouri as the front swings
across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley.

Saturday will be relatively quiet, with highs in the mid to upper
70s, a few degrees above normal. Through the evening, with the short
wave ridge axis sliding east over the region, a deepening,
positively tilted trough will churn over the Rockies, with broad
forcing for ascent outstretched ahead. Precipitation chances will
increase from the west through daybreak, continuing to spread east
through Sunday. Weak instability and shear profiles will result in
scattered rumbles of thunder, especially through the afternoon and
evening, but no severe weather is anticipated at this time.
Precipitation chances are expected to continue into and through
Monday as the H500 short wave trough slows and pivots over eastern
Kansas. Mid to long range solutions finally suggest an exit of the
system to the east through midday Tuesday as the short wave finally
gets some assistance from the more prominent trough over eastern
Canada. Rainfall totals from Sunday through Tuesday morning will
range between 1.00 to 1.50 inches. A few locally higher amounts,
closer to 2.00 inches cannot be ruled out.

Brief ridging will persist behind the early week system across the
region through Wednesday. Hot on its heels will be another digging
H500 trough off the western High Plains into Thursday. This system
will bring another chance for thunderstorms to the area. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be
out of northwest between 5-10 knots during the afternoon on
Friday. This northwesterly flow is expected to ease around
sunset will remain relaxed throughout the morning hours on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR through the period. Might keep a pesky scattered cloud deck
centered at 700mb (or roughly around 8-10kft) through the duration
of the TAF. Should see clouds thin out overnight, with another
increase Saturday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...Blair