127
FXUS64 KSJT 092022
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
322 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR Severe Storm Potential...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A dryline currently stretches from around Sweetwater south through
just east of Sonora, while a southward moving cold front stretched
from Sweetwater east through Baird. The ongoing severe convection
across southeast Shackelford county developed along the front, but
no other strong to severe thunderstorms are noted on radar imagery
in our area at the moment. However, visible satellite shows towers
going up over central Tom Green county, so this may be the next
area of convective development over the next couple hours. There
is plenty of instability east of the dry-line and south of the
front, with ML CAPE of 3000+ J/KG, and decent mid level lapse
rates of 7.5-8. Meanwhile, sufficient effective shear of 45-50 KT
and Storm Relative Helicity of 100+ m2/s2 indicate increased
likelihood of supercells. Mean storm motion vectors being roughly
perpendicular to the dry-line increases the chance for the storm
mode to be discrete supercells, which increases the chances for
large to very large hail and perhaps some tornadoes. Significant
Tornado Parameters of 1 to 3 in the Heartland and eastern Big
Country indicates that the best tornado potential will be in those
areas for the next few hours. Damaging winds are also possible.

SJH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Tornado Watch in Affect through 9PM CT tonight across the
Northwest Hill Country, Heartland, Eastern Concho Valley, and
Southeast Big Country.

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening mainly across the Heartland, Northwest Hill Country,
Eastern Concho Valley, and Eastern Big Country. Large hail,
Damaging Winds, and Isolated Tornadoes are possible across these
areas through 9PM tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected
behind the cold front tonight into Friday, with temperatures only
reaching into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southwest,
potentially affecting the Northern Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill
Country, Concho Valley, and Western Heartland. Storms that do
develop are not expected to become as severe as we are currently
expecting this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Cooler temperatures this weekend with an unsettled pattern.

An upper low will be over the Nevada/Arizona border Friday night,
and will move over the Four Corners area by Saturday evening. The
low is progged to move across the western half of Kansas Sunday
night, with a trough extending south across our area. An embedded
disturbance or two will be moving over our area ahead of this
system. With this setup and increased lift/moisture in our area, we
have medium to high PoPs (40-80 percent) for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday.

Rain chances should largely dwindle Monday with a weak cold frontal
passage, and as the aforementioned trough shifts east of our area.
Less cloud cover and a return to southerly winds will result in
warmer temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Our area will have another chance of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, when an upper trough is progged
to move into the southern Plains. The details are more uncertain
that far out, however. After highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s
Wednesday, temperatures may be a little cooler Thursday in the wake
of a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions will remain across all terminals through this
afternoon with increased potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible across our eastern-most terminals
through this evening. KBBD, KABI, and KJCT could see a shower or
thunderstorm through this evening which has been included into the
TAF package with the most recent update. Winds will be gusty ahead
of the front and remain from the north to northeast through
Friday. MVFR conditions are possible again tonight into Friday
morning and have been included into the TAF package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     59  78  60  73 /  10  10  10  50
San Angelo  62  80  62  73 /  10  30  20  70
Junction    64  82  63  79 /  10  30  20  50
Brownwood   60  78  60  74 /  40  10  10  40
Sweetwater  59  78  61  70 /  10  10  10  70
Ozona       63  78  62  73 /  10  40  30  60
Brady       63  77  61  74 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...TP