Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
346
UXUS97 KBOU 081244
SRGBOU
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0640 MDT Wednesday, May 8, 2024
This forecast is for Wednesday, May 8, 2024:
If the trigger temperature of 44.9 F/7.2 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1179 ft/min (6.0 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 18889 ft MSL (13569 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 61.0 F/16.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0830 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 17076 ft MSL (11756 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 05/09..... Fair
Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... Little change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Neither
Potential height of wave....................... 14441 ft MSL (9121 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Thursday 05/09........ Poor
Remarks... Westerly flow aloft weakens today
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:50:50 / 20:01:03 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 10 min 13 sec (850 min 13 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:55:57 MDT... 67.59 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 05/08/2024 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 7242 ft MSL (1922 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 13973 ft MSL (8653 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 16662 ft MSL (11341 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +2.3
K index......................... +0.9
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -50.5 -58.9 255 14 7 2.4 1.3 M M M M M
45000 -46.8 -52.2 295 22 12 1.7 0.9 M M M M M
40000 -45.9 -50.6 265 40 21 0.6 0.3 M M M M M
38000 -45.5 -49.9 260 48 25 1.0 0.5 M M M M M
36000 -44.8 -48.6 255 54 28 1.0 0.6 M M M M M
34000 -44.2 -47.6 255 60 31 1.4 0.8 M M M M M
32000 -42.7 -44.9 250 58 30 2.6 1.4 M M M M M
30000 -41.1 -42.0 250 56 29 2.6 1.4 M M M M M
29000 -40.2 -40.4 250 52 27 3.1 1.7 34.7 94.5 14.1 M M
28000 -39.3 -38.7 250 48 25 3.1 1.7 32.0 89.6 12.2 M M
27000 -38.4 -37.1 250 44 23 3.1 1.7 29.5 85.1 10.4 M M
26000 -37.2 -35.0 250 40 21 5.3 2.9 27.3 81.1 8.8 M M
25000 -35.7 -32.3 255 36 19 5.1 2.8 25.4 77.7 7.4 M M
24000 -34.2 -29.6 260 33 17 5.1 2.8 23.7 74.6 6.1 M M
23000 -32.6 -26.7 265 29 15 6.8 3.7 22.1 71.9 4.9 M M
22000 -30.5 -22.9 265 27 14 6.7 3.7 21.0 69.7 4.0 M M
21000 -28.5 -19.3 270 26 13 6.7 3.7 19.9 67.8 3.2 M M
20000 -26.8 -16.2 275 23 12 4.4 2.4 18.5 65.3 2.0 M M
19500 -26.1 -15.0 275 22 11 4.4 2.4 17.5 63.5 1.2 M M
19000 -25.1 -13.2 275 20 10 4.5 2.4 16.1 61.0 -0.0 1178 6.0
18500 -24.5 -12.1 275 19 10 4.5 2.5 15.2 59.4 -0.8 1143 5.8
18000 -23.8 -10.8 280 17 9 4.2 2.3 14.3 57.8 -1.6 1109 5.6
17500 -23.2 -9.8 285 15 8 4.2 2.3 13.4 56.0 -2.4 1076 5.5
17000 -22.6 -8.7 290 12 6 4.8 2.6 12.4 54.4 -3.3 1042 5.3
16500 -21.7 -7.1 300 10 5 5.8 3.2 11.7 53.1 -4.0 1002 5.1
16000 -20.9 -5.6 315 9 5 5.9 3.2 11.1 51.9 -4.6 962 4.9
15500 -19.9 -3.8 325 9 5 7.6 4.2 10.6 51.0 -5.1 917 4.7
15000 -18.8 -1.8 335 10 5 7.4 4.1 10.2 50.3 -5.4 868 4.4
14500 -17.6 0.3 335 11 6 8.2 4.5 9.9 49.8 -5.8 819 4.2
14000 -16.4 2.5 335 12 6 8.2 4.5 9.6 49.3 -6.0 767 3.9
13500 -15.1 4.8 330 14 7 8.4 4.6 9.4 48.9 -6.3 715 3.6
13000 -13.9 7.0 325 15 8 8.5 4.6 9.2 48.5 -6.5 663 3.4
12500 -12.6 9.3 320 17 9 8.7 4.7 9.0 48.1 -6.8 610 3.1
12000 -11.3 11.7 315 19 10 8.7 4.8 8.8 47.8 -7.0 556 2.8
11500 -10.0 14.0 315 22 11 8.5 4.7 8.6 47.5 -7.2 502 2.6
11000 -8.7 16.3 310 25 13 8.6 4.7 8.4 47.1 -7.4 450 2.3
10500 -7.6 18.3 305 28 14 6.9 3.8 8.1 46.6 -7.8 400 2.0
10250 -7.1 19.2 305 29 15 5.5 3.0 7.8 46.1 -8.1 378 1.9
10000 -6.6 20.1 305 30 16 9.4 5.1 7.6 45.6 -8.3 357 1.8
9750 -5.8 21.6 300 31 16 10.7 5.9 7.7 45.9 -8.2 324 1.6
9500 -5.2 22.6 300 32 16 7.2 4.0 7.6 45.7 -8.4 298 1.5
9250 -4.6 23.7 300 33 17 7.4 4.1 7.4 45.3 -8.6 274 1.4
9000 -4.1 24.6 295 33 17 7.6 4.2 7.2 45.0 -8.8 250 1.3
8750 -3.5 25.7 295 33 17 7.7 4.2 7.1 44.7 -9.0 226 1.1
8500 -2.9 26.8 290 33 17 7.4 4.1 6.9 44.4 -9.2 202 1.0
8250 -2.4 27.7 290 33 17 7.7 4.3 6.7 44.1 -9.4 178 0.9
8000 -1.8 28.8 290 33 17 6.8 3.7 6.6 43.8 -9.6 154 0.8
7750 -1.3 29.7 285 33 17 7.2 4.0 6.3 43.3 -9.9 132 0.7
7500 -0.7 30.7 285 31 16 8.4 4.6 6.2 43.1 -10.0 106 0.5
7250 -0.1 31.8 280 29 15 8.5 4.6 6.1 42.9 -10.2 80 0.4
7000 0.5 32.9 280 28 14 6.5 3.6 5.9 42.7 -10.3 55 0.3
6750 0.9 33.6 280 27 14 7.7 4.2 5.7 42.2 -10.6 34 0.2
6500 1.7 35.1 275 25 13 11.0 6.0 5.7 42.2 -10.6 4 0.0
6250 2.4 36.3 270 22 11 8.4 4.6 5.7 42.2 -10.7 M M
6000 2.9 37.2 265 20 10 5.1 2.8 5.4 41.8 -10.9 M M
5750 3.2 37.8 260 17 9 5.5 3.0 5.1 41.1 -11.3 M M
5500 3.5 38.3 250 13 7 -1.2 -0.6 4.6 40.3 -11.9 M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
05/08/2024 at 0900 MDT | 05/08/2024 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.9 | CAPE... +13.1 LI... +5.1
CINH... -1.3 K Index... +1.2 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +0.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -50.8 -59.4 240 17 9 2.6 1.4 | -50.3 -58.5 245 14 7 2.1 1.2
45000 -47.0 -52.6 280 16 8 1.9 1.0 | -47.1 -52.8 250 18 9 1.8 1.0
40000 -45.1 -49.2 260 30 15 1.2 0.7 | -45.2 -49.4 255 33 17 1.2 0.7
38000 -44.5 -48.1 260 35 18 0.8 0.5 | -44.9 -48.8 255 36 18 -0.6 -0.3
36000 -43.9 -47.0 260 39 20 0.8 0.5 | -45.3 -49.5 265 36 18 -0.6 -0.3
34000 -43.4 -46.1 260 43 22 0.6 0.3 | -45.7 -50.3 270 36 19 -0.6 -0.3
32000 -43.4 -46.1 265 35 18 0.0 0.0 | -46.3 -51.3 275 35 18 -1.1 -0.6
30000 -43.3 -45.9 265 27 14 0.4 0.2 | -46.9 -52.4 285 34 17 -1.1 -0.6
29000 -42.3 -44.1 275 23 12 4.2 2.3 | -44.6 -48.3 290 32 17 7.7 4.2
28000 -41.0 -41.8 290 20 10 4.2 2.3 | -42.2 -44.0 290 31 16 7.8 4.3
27000 -39.8 -39.6 305 18 9 4.2 2.3 | -39.9 -39.8 295 29 15 7.7 4.2
26000 -38.2 -36.8 320 18 9 7.3 4.0 | -37.4 -35.3 295 28 14 8.6 4.7
25000 -36.1 -33.0 330 16 8 7.1 3.9 | -34.9 -30.8 295 27 14 8.6 4.7
24000 -33.9 -29.0 340 16 8 7.1 3.9 | -32.3 -26.1 295 25 13 8.6 4.7
23000 -31.8 -25.2 345 15 8 6.9 3.8 | -29.9 -21.8 295 24 12 7.5 4.1
22000 -29.7 -21.5 345 15 8 6.9 3.8 | -27.6 -17.7 295 22 11 7.5 4.1
21000 -27.7 -17.9 345 15 8 6.8 3.7 | -25.4 -13.7 290 20 10 7.6 4.2
20000 -26.0 -14.8 340 14 7 4.2 2.3 | -23.6 -10.5 295 19 10 5.5 3.0
19500 -25.4 -13.7 340 14 7 4.2 2.3 | -22.7 -8.9 295 18 9 5.5 3.0
19000 -24.7 -12.5 335 14 7 4.2 2.3 | -21.9 -7.4 295 18 9 5.5 3.0
18500 -23.8 -10.8 330 13 7 4.2 2.3 | -21.1 -6.0 295 18 9 5.5 3.0
18000 -23.2 -9.8 330 13 7 3.8 2.1 | -20.3 -4.5 300 17 9 4.2 2.3
17500 -22.6 -8.7 330 12 6 3.8 2.1 | -19.8 -3.6 300 16 8 3.6 2.0
17000 -22.1 -7.8 330 11 6 4.3 2.4 | -19.3 -2.7 300 15 8 3.5 1.9
16500 -21.3 -6.3 335 10 5 4.9 2.7 | -18.8 -1.8 300 14 7 3.1 1.7
16000 -20.6 -5.1 335 9 4 5.3 2.9 | -18.3 -0.9 295 13 6 3.0 1.6
15500 -19.6 -3.3 340 8 4 7.8 4.3 | -17.4 0.7 295 11 6 4.7 2.6
15000 -18.5 -1.3 340 8 4 7.5 4.1 | -16.7 1.9 290 10 5 4.9 2.7
14500 -17.3 0.9 340 7 4 8.8 4.8 | -15.8 3.6 285 9 5 6.7 3.7
14000 -16.0 3.2 340 7 3 8.7 4.8 | -14.9 5.2 280 9 5 6.5 3.6
13500 -14.7 5.5 335 6 3 8.5 4.7 | -13.8 7.2 280 9 5 7.9 4.3
13000 -13.4 7.9 330 7 3 8.6 4.7 | -12.7 9.1 280 9 5 7.7 4.2
12500 -12.2 10.0 325 7 4 8.4 4.6 | -11.4 11.5 280 9 5 8.9 4.9
12000 -10.9 12.4 320 9 4 8.3 4.6 | -10.1 13.8 285 10 5 8.8 4.8
11500 -9.6 14.7 315 10 5 8.7 4.8 | -8.8 16.2 285 10 5 9.5 5.2
11000 -8.3 17.1 315 12 6 9.0 4.9 | -7.4 18.7 290 12 6 9.6 5.3
10500 -7.1 19.2 315 14 7 7.4 4.1 | -6.1 21.0 295 13 7 7.5 4.1
10250 -6.6 20.1 315 15 8 5.9 3.2 | -5.5 22.1 295 14 7 7.4 4.1
10000 -6.1 21.0 315 16 8 11.0 6.1 | -4.9 23.2 300 15 8 12.5 6.8
9750 -5.0 23.0 310 17 9 12.4 6.8 | -3.8 25.2 300 16 8 12.2 6.7
9500 -4.4 24.1 310 19 10 7.9 4.3 | -3.2 26.2 295 17 9 8.0 4.4
9250 -3.7 25.3 310 20 10 8.7 4.8 | -2.5 27.5 295 17 9 9.0 4.9
9000 -3.1 26.4 305 21 11 8.8 4.8 | -1.9 28.6 295 18 9 9.3 5.1
8750 -2.4 27.7 305 22 11 7.9 4.4 | -1.2 29.8 295 19 10 9.7 5.3
8500 -1.9 28.6 300 23 12 6.8 3.7 | -0.5 31.1 295 19 10 9.5 5.2
8250 -1.4 29.5 300 24 12 7.5 4.1 | 0.2 32.4 295 19 10 9.4 5.2
8000 -0.9 30.4 300 25 13 5.9 3.2 | 1.0 33.8 295 19 10 9.9 5.4
7750 -0.5 31.1 295 24 12 5.8 3.2 | 1.7 35.1 295 19 10 10.2 5.6
7500 -0.0 32.0 295 23 12 7.2 4.0 | 2.5 36.5 295 19 10 10.0 5.5
7250 0.5 32.9 290 22 11 6.9 3.8 | 3.2 37.8 295 19 10 9.9 5.5
7000 1.0 33.8 290 21 11 7.0 3.9 | 3.9 39.0 295 19 10 8.1 4.5
6750 1.6 34.9 290 20 10 9.4 5.2 | 4.5 40.1 295 19 10 9.6 5.3
6500 2.4 36.3 290 19 10 11.4 6.3 | 5.4 41.7 295 18 10 11.9 6.5
6250 3.2 37.8 290 19 10 10.7 5.9 | 6.2 43.2 295 18 9 11.3 6.2
6000 4.0 39.2 290 18 9 10.7 5.9 | 7.1 44.8 295 18 9 12.2 6.7
5750 4.8 40.6 290 17 9 9.9 5.4 | 8.0 46.4 295 18 9 9.9 5.4
5500 5.6 42.1 290 15 8 12.9 7.1 | 8.7 47.7 295 16 8 15.3 8.4
05/08/2024 at 1500 MDT | 05/08/2024 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +17.9 LI... +4.3 | CAPE... +14.2 LI... +1.5
CINH... -0.2 K Index... +9.7 | CINH... -3.8 K Index... +14.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -51.1 -60.0 235 11 6 2.1 1.2 | -51.3 -60.3 235 11 5 2.4 1.3
45000 -47.9 -54.2 250 21 11 0.9 0.5 | -47.7 -53.9 260 20 10 -0.0 -0.0
40000 -46.5 -51.7 260 36 18 0.9 0.5 | -47.5 -53.5 260 33 17 0.1 0.1
38000 -46.4 -51.5 260 41 21 -0.8 -0.4 | -47.6 -53.7 260 38 20 -0.5 -0.3
36000 -46.8 -52.2 260 44 23 -0.8 -0.4 | -47.8 -54.0 255 42 21 -0.5 -0.3
34000 -47.3 -53.1 260 48 24 -0.6 -0.3 | -48.1 -54.6 255 46 24 0.3 0.1
32000 -47.3 -53.1 265 44 23 0.1 0.0 | -47.3 -53.1 255 45 23 1.3 0.7
30000 -46.9 -52.4 270 41 21 7.3 4.0 | -46.0 -50.8 260 44 23 8.7 4.8
29000 -44.4 -47.9 270 39 20 8.2 4.5 | -43.5 -46.3 260 41 21 8.2 4.5
28000 -42.0 -43.6 270 37 19 8.2 4.5 | -41.1 -42.0 260 39 20 8.2 4.5
27000 -39.5 -39.1 270 35 18 8.1 4.5 | -38.6 -37.5 260 36 18 8.3 4.5
26000 -36.9 -34.4 270 34 17 9.0 4.9 | -36.2 -33.2 260 33 17 8.1 4.4
25000 -34.2 -29.6 270 32 17 9.0 4.9 | -33.8 -28.8 265 31 16 8.1 4.4
24000 -31.6 -24.9 270 31 16 9.0 4.9 | -31.4 -24.5 265 29 15 8.1 4.4
23000 -29.1 -20.4 270 29 15 8.0 4.4 | -29.1 -20.4 265 26 13 7.4 4.1
22000 -26.7 -16.1 265 28 14 8.0 4.4 | -26.9 -16.4 270 24 12 7.4 4.1
21000 -24.3 -11.7 265 26 13 8.4 4.6 | -24.7 -12.5 270 21 11 7.5 4.1
20000 -22.5 -8.5 265 23 12 5.3 2.9 | -23.4 -10.1 265 19 10 3.7 2.0
19500 -21.7 -7.1 265 22 11 5.3 2.9 | -22.8 -9.0 265 17 9 3.7 2.0
19000 -20.9 -5.6 265 20 10 5.3 2.9 | -22.3 -8.1 260 16 8 3.7 2.0
18500 -20.1 -4.2 265 18 9 5.6 3.0 | -21.7 -7.1 255 15 8 3.7 2.0
18000 -19.5 -3.1 265 16 8 1.9 1.0 | -21.1 -6.0 250 14 7 4.3 2.4
17500 -19.3 -2.7 270 14 7 1.6 0.9 | -20.5 -4.9 250 13 7 4.4 2.4
17000 -19.1 -2.4 280 11 6 2.5 1.4 | -19.9 -3.8 250 12 6 6.0 3.3
16500 -18.2 -0.8 295 10 5 4.3 2.4 | -18.2 -0.8 255 11 6 7.4 4.1
16000 -17.6 0.3 305 10 5 6.2 3.4 | -17.1 1.2 265 10 5 7.9 4.3
15500 -16.5 2.3 305 10 5 7.4 4.1 | -15.9 3.4 270 9 5 8.0 4.4
15000 -15.3 4.5 305 9 5 7.6 4.2 | -14.7 5.5 275 8 4 7.7 4.2
14500 -14.2 6.4 305 10 5 7.7 4.2 | -13.6 7.5 290 7 4 7.4 4.1
14000 -13.0 8.6 305 10 5 7.7 4.2 | -12.5 9.5 300 7 3 7.5 4.1
13500 -12.0 10.4 305 10 5 6.9 3.8 | -11.4 11.5 310 7 4 7.9 4.3
13000 -10.9 12.4 305 10 5 6.9 3.8 | -10.2 13.6 315 7 4 8.0 4.4
12500 -9.8 14.4 310 10 5 8.9 4.9 | -9.0 15.8 315 8 4 8.8 4.8
12000 -8.5 16.7 310 11 6 8.8 4.8 | -7.7 18.1 315 8 4 8.8 4.8
11500 -7.2 19.0 310 11 6 9.4 5.2 | -6.3 20.7 315 8 4 9.5 5.2
11000 -5.8 21.6 310 12 6 9.4 5.1 | -4.9 23.2 320 8 4 9.3 5.1
10500 -4.5 23.9 310 12 6 8.1 4.4 | -3.6 25.5 320 8 4 8.1 4.4
10250 -3.8 25.2 310 12 6 8.7 4.8 | -3.0 26.6 320 9 4 9.2 5.1
10000 -3.1 26.4 310 12 6 12.1 6.6 | -2.2 28.0 320 9 4 12.1 6.7
9750 -2.1 28.2 310 12 6 11.5 6.3 | -1.3 29.7 320 9 5 11.3 6.2
9500 -1.4 29.5 310 12 6 9.2 5.1 | -0.5 31.1 320 9 5 9.5 5.2
9250 -0.7 30.7 310 12 6 9.7 5.3 | 0.2 32.4 320 9 5 10.3 5.6
9000 0.0 32.0 310 12 6 10.2 5.6 | 1.0 33.8 320 9 5 9.2 5.0
8750 0.8 33.4 310 12 6 10.4 5.7 | 1.6 34.9 320 9 5 9.2 5.1
8500 1.6 34.9 310 12 6 9.8 5.4 | 2.4 36.3 320 9 5 10.2 5.6
8250 2.3 36.1 310 12 6 10.0 5.5 | 3.1 37.6 320 9 5 9.9 5.4
8000 3.1 37.6 310 12 6 9.8 5.4 | 3.9 39.0 320 9 5 10.2 5.6
7750 3.8 38.8 310 12 6 9.8 5.4 | 4.6 40.3 325 9 5 10.0 5.5
7500 4.5 40.1 310 12 6 10.0 5.5 | 5.4 41.7 320 9 5 10.1 5.5
7250 5.3 41.5 310 12 6 9.6 5.3 | 6.1 43.0 320 9 5 9.4 5.2
7000 5.9 42.6 310 12 6 8.0 4.4 | 6.7 44.1 320 9 5 8.0 4.4
6750 6.6 43.9 310 12 6 9.9 5.5 | 7.4 45.3 325 9 5 9.9 5.4
6500 7.4 45.3 310 12 6 12.4 6.8 | 8.2 46.8 320 9 5 11.8 6.4
6250 8.3 46.9 310 12 6 11.3 6.2 | 9.1 48.4 320 9 4 10.6 5.8
6000 9.2 48.6 310 11 6 11.4 6.3 | 9.8 49.6 320 9 5 10.7 5.9
5750 10.0 50.0 310 11 6 9.9 5.4 | 10.6 51.1 325 9 5 9.3 5.1
5500 10.8 51.4 310 11 5 15.7 8.6 | 11.3 52.3 320 8 4 10.9 6.0
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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