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000
FXUS63 KGLD 210823
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TODAY...AND WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. EVEN WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...THE AIR MASS WILL BE
DRY AND INCREASINGLY STABLE ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE AIDED BY DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW
AT 850/700 MB TO PRODUCE WINDS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...20 TO 35 KNOTS.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR
CONTINUED DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DEVELOPS
SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE...HOWEVER...
AND EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY...AND MODELS BRING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STABLE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO RETURN...WILL INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE IMPLIED LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FRIDAY. IN
RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TRAJECTORIES
FAVOR A CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR BY THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS FURTHEST WEST WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
UPPER LOW AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD PLACING
ITS AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND
GEM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE POSITION OF BOTH FEATURES KEEPING
OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE WILL DEPEND
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EMBEDDED DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT
15-25KT WINDS AFTER 13Z INCREASING TO 25-35KTS AFTER 17Z. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS BACK DOWN TO
15-25KTS AFTER 02Z TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...LOCKHART