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000
FXHW60 PHFO 141330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BEFORE EASING SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND. FREQUENT SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND
SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS SPREADING TO LEEWARD
AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS. TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE OVER WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT FEWER
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD LEEWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND WET TRADE WIND WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WILL EASE
SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT TRADE WINDS AND PASSING WINDWARD
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

CURRENTLY...LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A PAIR
OF 1033 MB HIGHS CENTERED N AND NE OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH EARLY
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN
PLACE...CAPPING THE INCOMING MOISTURE TO THE LOWEST 10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TRADE WIND FLOW
UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS CONTAINS SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WSW AT SPEEDS CLOSE TO 30 MPH.
THIN HIGH CLOUDS NEAR AND W OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AND BROAD TROUGH ALOFT THAT HAS AN AXIS ABOUT 400 MILES W OF
THE ISLANDS.

THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SURFACE HIGHS TO MERGE FAR NNE OF THE
ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE RESULTANT HIGH THEN DRIFTING
SE AND SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW TRADE
WINDS TO EASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT TRADE WINDS WILL
EASE ANOTHER NOTCH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
NW OF THE ISLANDS.

SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE HOW MUCH DRYING OF THE TRADE WIND
FLOW OCCURS AS TRADE WIND SPEEDS EASE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A WEAK MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND IT LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT
WET TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. LESS SHOWERS
SHOULD SPREAD LEEWARD HOWEVER AS TRADES EASE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS...WITH COMBINED SEAS RUNNING AS HIGH AS 10 FEET AT THE NEAR
SHORE WINDWARD BUOYS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SLOWLY
FROM THEIR CURRENT PEAK...ALLOWING SOME MARINE ZONES TO FALL OUT OF
THE SCA BY TONIGHT...WHILE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED ANOTHER 24
HOURS FOR THE WINDIEST ZONES. SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES ARRIVING
ALONG EXPOSED E FACING SHORES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF TODAY...BUT THE EXPECTED DOWN TREND WILL LIKELY ALLOW SURF TO
DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY TONIGHT. SURF WILL REMAIN ON THE
SMALL SIDE ALONG OTHER SHORES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR COND LIKELY FOR WINDWARD SECTIONS/TERMINALS THRU AT LEAST
14/2200Z. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MT OBSC WILL ALSO REMAIN POSTED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS FOR WINDWARD SECTIONS. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR WILL
PREVAIL. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LLVL LEE TURB DUE TO THE
GUSTY TRADES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...DEJESUS