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000
FXUS64 KLCH 161525
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...THE REMAINS OF LAST
NIGHTS NRN TX SEVERE CONVECTION...PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE TOLEDO
BEND REGION AND CNTL LA. UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BRIEF SHOT OF DRY AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
SABINE VALLEY...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS NOTED BACK IN CNTL TX.
MODIFIED 12Z KLCH SOUNDING WAS PLENTY MOIST (1.5 INCH PWAT/130+
PCNT OF CLIMO NORMAL) AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH A TRIGGER TEMP IN
THE MID 70S. GIVEN ALL THAT THE SMALL POPS INHERITED FOR THE REST
OF TODAY LOOK GOOD. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS WHICH
WILL NOT WARRANT A ZONE UPDATE THIS MORNING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

UPDATE...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH THE RISING SUN.
HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THIS AREA AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY SHORTWAVES...ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
OKLAHOMA LOW...CONTINUE TO UPSWING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
.BRINGING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER TEXAS MCS
NOW ADVANCING INTO OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. HAVE
BUMPED UP EARLY MORNING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT 35 MPH.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LOW NOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ENTERING THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE. FEATURE SPAWNED A QLCS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTH TEXAS...WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE QLCS
APPROACHING OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. DECAY OF SYSTEM
HAS BEEN RAPID OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO
AREA OF MORE STABILITY. EXPECTING LITTLE ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
OUR CWA. OTHERWISE...

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS AREA-WIDE AS
SOUTHWARD TROFFING/WEAKNESS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...IN COMBINATION
WITH ANY PVA CARRIED WITHIN TROF.

LOW WILL OPEN AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH
AMPLIFYING RIDGING MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ENSUING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK...WHILE ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN ONLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THAT IN MIND...WARM AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...WHILE NIGHTS WILL BE MILD. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL.

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE NORTHWEST GULF PRIMARILY WITHIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  70  83  71  84 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  70  83  71  84 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  85  68  87  69  88 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  83  70  84  70  86 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$