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000
FXUS64 KLCH 121748
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.AVIATION...SUBTROPICAL JET WOULD GIVE SOME LIFT IF ONLY THERE
WERE MOISTURE BELOW. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF IS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT THERE.
FOR THE TERMINALS VFR WITH JET CIRRUS PLUS SOME NORTHEASTERLY
GUSTINESS FROM WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE GRADIENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE CAVOK ON MONDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING AS REINFORCING FRONT ALREADY THROUGH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA
TODAY...USHERING IN A SECONDARY SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED...AND EVEN CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
MOSTLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...A PLEASANT MOTHERS DAY AND A WELCOME
REPRIEVE FROM THE STORMY/WET PAST FEW DAYS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

AVIATION...
CI CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SW ACROSS THE REGION. NOT EXPECTED
TO EFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL PICKUP A BIT TODAY BUT
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. VFR FLIGHTS RULES EXPECTED TO HOLD AS
COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...
NICE COOL MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT THERE IS
SOME CLOUDINESS TRYING TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS MAINLY SITUATED ALONG THE COAST...CLOSER TO THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RADAR AND LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THERE ARE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF THAT ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

REINFORCING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY...BRINGING DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE LAND AREA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME CLOUDS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD
DRY UP AS WELL AND EVENTUALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

STILL EXPECTING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO APPROACH RECORD LOWS IN A FEW SPOTS.

OTHERWISE REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVERALL
WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS.

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKING FOR A WEAKENING
TROUGH TO LIFT OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. GFS
SLOWED THIS FEATURE DOWN THIS RUN AND IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THIS
MORNING. DID NUDGE RAIN CHANCES DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AND LEFT
THURSDAY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...HOWEVER POPS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ONE OF THOSE TWO DAYS AS SOME OF THE DETAILS IN
TIMING GET WORKED OUT.

CLIMATE...WITH THE RECENT 4-9 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LA AND SOUTHEAST TX...BOTH BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES
HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THE MONTHLY NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  53  79  59  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  81  56  79  59  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  77  50  79  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  79  53  78  59  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$