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000
FXUS64 KLCH 220502
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FINAL UPDATE OF THE EVENING TO EXPAND LIKELY POPS FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH RADAR TRENDS AND AVAILABLE 00Z
MODEL DATA MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT CONVECTION WILL REACH DEEPER INTO
SE TX/SW LA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
EARLIER POP/WX UPDATES FOR BOTH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE
STILL ON TARGET...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING AS
TO HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION OF ANY CONSEQUENCE WILL GET. CONTINUED
TO LEAVE FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONE...WHICH MAINTAINS HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOULD RADAR
TRENDS AND/OR 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST OTHERWISE...AS SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE...THEN ANOTHER UPDATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED DECENT
RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA...HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF PCPN
CLOUDS THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST AS WELL...BUT WITH IT LIKELY TO AT
LEAST AFFECT EAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LA...THE LOW TEMPERATURE FCST
AND DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED A GOOD 5 OR SO DEGREES IN THESE AREAS.

FINALLY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NO LONGER SUPPORT THE SCEC
HEADLINE...SO THIS HAZARD WAS REMOVED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS UNTIL 1 AM. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT EXTENSIVE QLCS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE SE INTO PARTS OF EAST TX/CENTRAL LA...WHICH IS REASONABLE
GIVEN RAPID PROGRESSION OF LEADING OUTFLOW...WHICH IS ONLY 20 MIN
OR SO AWAY FROM REACHING NW VERNON PARISH. HOW STNG/SVR THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT WIDESPREAD 30KT WIND
GUSTS WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER VALUES SEEMS LIKELY. POPS/WX
GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST
MODEL DATA/RADAR TRENDS...BUT LEFT FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT UNCHANGED
AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH TX AND OK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WEAK RIDGING IS
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE MID TO LOW LVLS. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EAST OK AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DFW METRO WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AREA AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF
THE CWA OR RIGHT ALONG THE NORTH EDGE, HOWEVER THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S AND EAST ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
TONIGHT INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST, BUT THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL GIVE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM INTO WED MORNING. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH WED WHILE THE BEST DIVERGENCE
PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGING WILL AGAIN OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, HOWEVER A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE IN FRI
OR EARLY SAT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EAST HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH, HOWEVER A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS MAY FILTER IN ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT DURING SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.


MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS RUNNING AROUND 15 KTS TO NEAR 20 KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE DURING WED MORNING AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES, BUT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND AN ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  86  71  88 /  70  50  10  20
KBPT  73  87  72  88 /  70  50  10  20
KAEX  67  87  68  90 /  70  60  20  20
KLFT  76  87  71  89 /  50  60  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$