396
FXUS64 KLZK 071942
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
242 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024


Main concern for this forecast period, is severe thunderstorm/heavy
rain potential for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

19z subjective surface analysis reveals a weak nearly stationary
boundary along the I-40 corridor. this feature will move northward
overnight. A few convective cells are possible during the overnight
hours, as an increasing low level jet supporting a warm air
advection pattern acts to force a corresponding convective response.

A cold front will approach the state on Wednesday. and is expected
to force convection, some some severe. Convective inhibition will be
weak at the start of the day, and may allow for some activity early
in the day.

The strongest cells will develop and progress eastward during the
mid afternoon and early evening period.  Several CAM runs continue
to indicate the upscale formation of a QLCS during the late
afternoon hours. All possible severe phenomena will be possible with
the strongest storms.  A strong signal for large hail is indicated
by a number of forecast parameters.

Widely scattered activity is expected on Thursday, across mainly
southern sections, supported by the exiting frontal boundary.  The
intensity of this activity will be much weaker.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Long term starts with a cold front to the south of the state which
will keep rain chances in the forecast...mainly across the southern
portions of the state. By Friday morning, winds aloft will become
more northwesterly and finally push the front away from the state
which will allow surface High pressure to build into the region.
This will lead to a prolonged stretch of dry weather through much of
the weekend. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80`s with
lows in the 50`s and 60`s.

Rain chances will return to the forecast towards the end of Mother`s
Day as High pressure departs to the east and a storm system
approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

At this time, it appears that chances for TSRA across sites will
occur after this TAF period ends. Expect MVFR ceilings across the
southern half of the forecast area after 12z.

55

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  85  62  83 /  10  70  80  10
Camden AR         70  88  66  86 /  10  20  70  30
Harrison AR       56  83  54  77 /   0  60  40  10
Hot Springs AR    67  86  62  84 /  20  30  70  20
Little Rock   AR  71  88  67  85 /  30  40  80  20
Monticello AR     73  90  69  87 /  10  10  70  30
Mount Ida AR      65  85  61  84 /  20  40  70  20
Mountain Home AR  58  83  55  79 /   0  70  50  10
Newport AR        67  85  63  82 /  20  60  80  10
Pine Bluff AR     72  88  67  84 /  20  20  80  20
Russellville AR   64  86  59  84 /  10  40  60  10
Searcy AR         67  85  63  83 /  30  50  80  10
Stuttgart AR      72  87  67  83 /  40  40  90  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...55