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000
FXUS64 KLZK 211747
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS...WILL MOVE INTO
WEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SITUATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTH PART OF THE STATE WITH GREATER INSTABILITY IN THAT LOCATION.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

UPDATE...
A NUMBER OF MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM.

15Z SUBJECT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BOUNDARY FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF JBR...TO THE RED RIVER. A BUBBLE HIGH WAS NOTED NEAR
RUSSELLVILLE...WITH A WAKE LOW LIKE FEATURE NEAR TULSA.

EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS OCCURED ACROSS MOST OF
WEST CENTRAL...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY FIEDS INDICATE THE BEST AVAILABLE ENERGY
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. FORECAST SHEAR
PROFILES INDICATE THAT THIS WILL ALSO BE THE AREA FOR
SUSTAINED...ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL
BACK ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUING TO
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FARTHER SOUTH...AND INCLUDED THE
PINE BLUFF AREA DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL LAST FRIDAY. ONE TO TWO
INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE TIMING WILL BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...EXPECT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP...WITH
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES CONDUCIVE TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. WHILE SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS MONDAY ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE CONVECTION TO LEAVE THE AREA...AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL PASS FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE VERY FAR INTO NRN AR FOR
THU...BUT ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NE...WITH ANOTHER...STRONGER FRONT MOVING SOUTH
TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE STATE BY FRI...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS
MENTIONED FOR THU AS THE INITIAL FRONT STALLS...THEN MENTION SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRI AS WELL...AS THE SECOND FRONT MOVES INTO
AR. HOWEVER...POPS ON FRI WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AS
THE DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO AR FROM THE NE.

OVER THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING FURTHER EAST AT
THE SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SRLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF AR
BY SUN...BUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LIMITED INTO MON. HOWEVER...SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON
HRS...ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MED
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL KEEP SILENT POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  84  62  81 /  80  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         69  85  66  88 /  80  20  10  20
HARRISON AR       57  80  58  78 /  70  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  85  65  86 /  80  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  86  66  86 /  80  20  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     69  85  67  88 /  80  30  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      64  84  63  86 /  80  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  81  59  79 /  70  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        65  84  63  82 /  80  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     69  85  66  86 /  80  30  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  83  63  84 /  80  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         65  85  63  83 /  80  20  10  20
STUTTGART AR      68  86  66  85 /  80  30  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CONWAY-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR POLK-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51