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000
FXUS64 KLZK 200032
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
731 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
PRECEDING...AND FOLLOWING...DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY SO DID KEEP WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN BRINGING IN SOME 1500-2000 FT AGL CIGS TO
MOST SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY 15-17Z AT
ALL SITES TOMORROW THOUGH. ONLY OTHER FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
STRONG WINDS TOMORROW...AND ALSO WHETHER OR NOT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM OKLAHOMA AFFECTS KHRO AND/OR KBPK LATER TONIGHT. DID
LEAVE SOME MENTION OF VCSH FROM 07Z-10Z AT KHRO...BUT GUT FEELING
IS THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING BUT WOULD NOT AFFECT KHRO. KBPK
SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST.

EXPECT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECT BOTH KHRO AND
KBPK TOMORROW...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 20Z OR SO AND THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT COVERAGE/LOCATION TO PRECLUDE ADDING TSRA
AND ASSOC MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY TO THE LAST 3-4 HOURS OF THE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ITS GOING TO BE A RATHER ACTIVE SETUP OVER THE DURATION OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIODS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
NEBRASKA DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HOWEVER...
THE FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE WINDS...WHICH IS
SOMEWHAT IMPEDING THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE MEAN FLOW...AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN MCS-
TYPE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR OUR AREA.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY LIKELY
NARROWLY MISSING NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...AND A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT UNEXPECTED.

HOWEVER...WHAT CONCERNS ME IS THE REMNANTS FROM TONIGHTS EXPECTED
SYSTEM...MORE SPECIFICALLY AN MCV. IF SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED
HEATING CAN OCCUR ON MONDAY...THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH
NEEDED TO GENERATE SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE...AND THIS WOULD BE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM NEEDED.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY MONDAY WOULD HAVE THE
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND
WIND THREATS. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GIVEN
EXTREMELY SLOW LOW LEVEL STORM MOTION...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
HOURS AFTER SUNSET MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ATTENTION WILL THEN
SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST...WHERE STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
CLOSE TO THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS NEXT MCS
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE IN TO ARKANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS BECOMING LIKELY.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A HAIL AND WIND THREAT...AS WELL AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOT THAT GREAT...
WHICH WOULD ACT TO LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT.

STORMS MAY DIMINISH A LITTLE BIT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWS DOWN OVER THE STATE. WITH CLOUD COVER PRESENT...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF A CAPPING INVERSION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH WOULD INITIALLY STYMIE CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND SHOULD ACT TO OVERCOME ANY
INHIBITIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS ARE NOW STARTING TO SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD ACT TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND.

THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINED BY CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN-COOLED AIR...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND RAIN AMOUNTS MAY BE LOW. ON
FRIDAY THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING WHILE SOME UPPER
NW FLOW MAY SEND SOME UPPER ENERGY INTO THE AREA. HAVE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION GOING...BUT THIS MAY BE LOWERED WITH
LATER FORECASTS. ON SATURDAY A SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILD MOVE
OVER THE AREA AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN DROPS. THIS HOLDS INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES TO A BIT ABOVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  69  81  69 /  10  10  20  50
CAMDEN AR         88  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  30
HARRISON AR       88  66  80  66 /  10  30  20  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  69  86  72 /  10  10  10  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  69  89  71 /  10  10  20  40
MONTICELLO AR     89  70  90  72 /  10  10  10  30
MOUNT IDA AR      87  70  84  71 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  67  83  67 /  10  20  20  60
NEWPORT AR        88  70  82  70 /  10  10  20  50
PINE BLUFF AR     88  70  89  71 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  83  69 /  10  10  20  50
SEARCY AR         87  68  85  68 /  10  10  20  50
STUTTGART AR      87  69  89  71 /  10  10  10  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64