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000
FXUS64 KLZK 221714
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1214 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SKIES WILLE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN AR...VFR WITH PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING ALL VFR LATE
MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS MORNING. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AR TODAY AND SWITCH WINDS FROM THE
SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS...TO THE SW TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
(59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SHRA ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS AN
UPPER WAVE LIFTS NE OVER AR. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NW...TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES FOR SHRA THROUGH MIDDAY...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AS NW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THU AND THU NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER
WRN AR. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN
COUNTIES DURING THIS PERIOD.

BY FRI MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
STATE...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SOME ISOLATED PRECIP ACTIVITY COULD
BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND SW NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR FRI INTO SAT AS THE COOLER...DRIER
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST...WITH SRLY FLOW RETURNING FOR LATE SAT. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS MUCH AR FOR SAT AS UPPER RIDGE
INTENSIFIES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...SOME PRECIP COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
FAR WEST AND NW LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
RIDGE JUST NORTH AND WEST OF AR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS WITH AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF TO THE EAST
OF AR...WHERE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF AR AND A SOUTH WIND
FLOW WAS OVER THE AREA. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AR
WITH ONLY A HINT OF SOME UPPER ENERGY NORTH OF AR. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTH WIND FLOW. THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK
DOWN GRADUALLY TO TUESDAY...AND SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY DOES
LIFT ACROSS PARTS OF NW AR TO SOUTHERN MO...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA. TUESDAY A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM FORMS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE AR REMAINS MAINLY DRY...WARM
WITH BREEZY DAY TIME CONDITIONS. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT
NIGHT WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 60S...WITH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG IN SPOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  82  56  74 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         63  89  65  81 /   0  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       56  78  54  73 /   0  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  85  62  77 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  86  61  76 /   0  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     64  88  64  79 /   0  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  85  61  78 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  79  53  74 /   0  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        61  82  56  74 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     64  87  62  77 /   0  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  83  59  77 /   0  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         61  84  58  74 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      63  85  60  76 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51