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000
FXUS64 KLZK 141133 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.AVIATION...

OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 14 MPH.

THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING...WITH WEST WINDS
AT 2000 FEET REACHING 40 TO 50 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WARMING TREND IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AS IS EVIDENT BY READINGS AT
ELEVATED SITES OVERNIGHT. MENA WAS STILL 72 DEGREES AS OF 3 AM.
MOS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS TODAY FOR
AREAS LIKE MENA...FORT SMITH...RUSSELVILLE...AND EVEN MOUNTAIN
HOME. THIS LINES UP WITH THE NOSE OF UPPER AND MID LEVEL RIDGING.
HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE WAS A BIT COOLER SO...WHILE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY...IT IS
DOUBTFUL THAT ANYONE WILL HIT 90 DEGREES...AT LEAST IN OUR CWA.

GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS AN APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S WARM
TEMPS BREAKS DOWN. QPF SIGNALS VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM MODEL TO
MODEL...BUT EXPECT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY THU. HAVE CHANCE POPS THU MORNING...LOWERING
TO SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS BY THU EVENING AND THEN DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT THU. MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS ON
FRIDAY. THE ONLY OTHER FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE WILL BE SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY LAKE
ADVISORIES FOR NOW AS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE JUST SHY OF
CRITERIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT ELEVATED LOCATIONS AND
ALSO IN THE DELTA REGION IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. UNDER THE HIGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT/ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL HOLD A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY EDGING TOWARD ARKANSAS BY
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF LITTLE ROCK.
IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO THE REGION NOT LONG
AFTER THE PERIOD HAS ENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  62  81  61 /   0  10  40  50
CAMDEN AR         87  59  80  62 /   0  10  50  50
HARRISON AR       88  61  79  59 /   0  10  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  61  79  62 /   0  10  50  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  61  81  62 /   0  10  50  50
MONTICELLO AR     86  60  82  63 /   0  10  40  40
MOUNT IDA AR      86  61  77  61 /   0  10  50  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  60  82  60 /   0  10  40  50
NEWPORT AR        87  62  81  63 /   0   0  40  50
PINE BLUFF AR     86  60  81  63 /   0  10  40  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  61  80  61 /   0  10  50  50
SEARCY AR         86  60  80  61 /   0  10  40  50
STUTTGART AR      85  60  81  63 /   0  10  40  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46