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000
FXUS64 KLZK 181801
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
101 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE AREA PROVIDING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
ARKANSAS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BENEATH AN INVERSION AT 6000 FEET. FOG IS JUST DISSIPATING AND LOW
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...

FOG HAS GRADUALLY THINNED THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
HAVE HELD ON OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN AR...WHILE MORE PATCHY
IN THE WEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER NE TO E AR...MOVING
EAST AND WEAKENING. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE STATE
WITH 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.43 INCHES
WHILE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
STATE. THE UPPER RIDGE WAS PUSHING EAST THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD
KEEP A CAP ON ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WELL AS HELP WARM TEMPS
INTO THE 80S TODAY. WILL UPDATE FORECAST IN LATE MORNING TO REMOVE
FOG MENTION...FINE TUNE CLOUDS AND ANY LOW CONVECTION CHANCES...AND
ADJUST TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN SPOTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT INVERSION TRAPPING ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LIRF CONDITIONS NOTED
ACROSS MULTIPLE SITES. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH BR
LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

INCRSG LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE NOTED OVR THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG. A WEAK SFC BNDRY WAS SITUATED ACRS CNTRL AR...MAINLY DENOTED
BY SFC DEWPOINTS ARND 70F. SLGTLY DRIER AIR WAS INDCD OVR NRN AR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. VSBYS RMN ABV ADVY CRITERIA ATTM...BUT WL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

AN UPR RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SLOLY EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY AND SUN. THIS WL RESULT IN EARLY SUMMERLIKE CONDS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE VCNTY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY TODAY...SO
DID INCLUDE SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE NERN PART OF THE FA.

HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SLOW MOVG UPR
TROF WL WORK INTO PLAINS STATES. THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE NW OF AR STARTING LATE SUN.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NWRN AR LATE SUN NGT AND
INTO EARLY MON AS THE IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.

THE UPR TROF/ASSOCD CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY WORK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FA
BY TUE AND TUE NGT...TO PRODUCE BETTER CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE RMNS
SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF THIS STORM SYS HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY. MEANWHILE...SOME
STRONG AND SVR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR PARTS OF NWRN AR MON
NGT AND EARLY TUE. EXTENT OF SVR WX THREAT LATER ON TUE/TUE NGT WL
DEPEND ON CONVECTION TRENDS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND THE LOCATION OF
LINGERING SMALL SCALE BNDRYS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE IN THE CARDS...DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  88  69  85 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         70  90  70  87 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       68  87  67  83 /  10  10  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  90  70  86 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  89  70  85 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     70  90  71  86 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      70  88  70  86 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  89  67  85 /  10  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        70  89  71  85 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  88  70  86 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  90  69  85 /  10  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         69  86  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      70  88  70  85 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51