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000
FXUS64 KLZK 141953
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
253 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THE DROP IN DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY LEAD TO MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST
TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE...WARMER AIR WILL MOVE NORTH SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI AND MAY HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY...AND WILL
BRIEF LATER SHIFTS ON THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT...AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE
MONDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POP GRADIENT TO REFLECT THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES...AND THUS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS CONT TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL FCST TRENDS THRU
THE PD. A CDFNT WL BE SITUATED ACRS SRN AR ON TUE...EVENTUALLY
STALLING OUT IN THE VCNTY OF THE LA BRDR. MEANWHILE...AN UPR LVL RDG
WL SLOLY BLD BACK INTO THE PLAINS STATES THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE...
RESULTING IN A CONTD MAINLY NWLY FLOW ACRS THE MID SOUTH. THIS WL
THE WEAK FNTL BNDRY QUASI-STATIONARY OVR SRN AR...ALONG WITH A CONTD
SLGT CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE
WITH READINGS STAYING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...44