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000
FXUS64 KLZK 151524 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1025 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. EXPECTED SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN AR LATE MORNING...THEN REACH CENTRAL AR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.  THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM ROTATING OVER WEST TX AND OK...AND AS IT SENDS A BAND
OF ENERGY INTO EASTERN OK TO WESTERN AR WHICH WILL HELP DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF
0.72 INCHES...LI OF 0...WHILE A SW WIND FLOW SURFACE TO 20K
FT...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 2-3K FT. INVERSION WAS NOTED AT 5300 FT
WHICH ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...MAY HOLD INITIAL CONVECTION
DOWN A BIT. SURFACE MOISTURE HAS DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S
EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST WITH EXPECTED INCREASING S TO SW FLOW TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE CONVECTION TREND GRADUALLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS LOOKS ON TRACK. LATE MORNING FORECAST
UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

.AVIATION...
MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VCSH/TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 15/20Z AND
GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
CONVECTION WILL LOWER...AND MAY BECOME IFR OVERNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

PERSISTENT S/SWLY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN MOST AREAS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER VALLEY LOCATIONS
HAD FALLEN INTO THE 50S. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT CLOUDS WERE
STARTING TO INCRS/DVLP OVR WRN AR.

THE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCD WITH INCRSG MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LVL STORM SYS APCHG THE TX PANHANDLE REGION. THE SLOW MOVG SYS WL
BRING UNSETTLED CONDS TO AR STARTING MAINLY ACRS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FA TODAY...AND AREAWIDE BY TNGT AND THU. STILL APPEARS THAT THE
BULK OF CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH THIS SYS WL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
CONTS TO TREND POPS IN THAT DIRECTION.

THE UPPER LVL SYS WL BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF AR THU NGT AND FRI. KEPT
LINGERING SLGT CHC POPS IN THE FCST DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF. A WEAK UPR LVL RDG WL BLD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDS EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THU WL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER OVER
A PARTICULAR AREA. MOS TEMPS SEE REASONABLE...BUT DID TREND CLOSER
TO GFS MOS NUMBERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WL RETURN TO ABV NORMAL
LVLS BY SAT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST SUNDAY...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THE UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP THE FRONT JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE DOES HAVE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58