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000
FXUS64 KLZK 180803
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
303 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

H500 cyclone making slow progress east along the US/CA border
will contribute to enhanced W/SW flow across the middle of the
country the next few days. A couple separate waves will move from
the Central Plains toward the Great Lakes and from TX toward the
Gulf Coast.

At the sfc, an area of low pressure and an associated cold front
extending from the KS/OK border southwestward this morning will
shift eastward throughout the day. The cold front will begin to
progress across the state from NW to SE by late afternoon/early
evening. S-SW winds are expected to increase across the state
today, gusts could approach 25 mph at times.

Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass characterized by Td
values in the 60s/70s F will extend northward into southern
Missouri and the Ohio Valley. Additionally, temperatures are
expected to soar into the 70s/80s F across the region with some
spots across the state seeing upper 80s F.

With the well above normal temperatures in place, instability
will increase this afternoon. As the front begins to move across
the state, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along it and push southeast through the
evening hours. Initial activity will have a better opportunity to
become severe. Some uncertainty remains regarding how far
southeast the severe threat will persist as well as storm coverage
through the late evening hours.

Regardless, overall severe weather threat is expected to diminish
by later in the evening as the front makes quick progress
southeastward and instability wanes. Could see a few storms
produce large hail and some damaging wind gusts, generally before
midnight across west/north Arkansas.

Much cooler temperatures are expected across the state on Friday
in the wake of the cold front. Sky conditions will generally
remain cloudy and some light rain will remain possible, especially
by Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

To begin the period, zonal flow aloft will keep an unsettled weather
pattern across the state to begin the long term period. A stalled
frontal boundary to the south of the state will bring the chance for
rain and storms through the weekend as a trough dives down from the
Central Plains by late Saturday. By Monday...high pressure begins to
move back into the state...bringing back those calm and dry
conditions.

While there is still some model disagreement regarding exact timing
and intensity of this system...severe weather looks to be on the low
end at this time. With that said, a few strong storms cannot be
ruled out.

Temperatures are expected to be coolest to begin the period before
warming early into next week. High temperatures over the weekend are
expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with overnight lows in
the upper 30s to upper 40s. By early next week, highs will begin to
warm into the lower 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows in the
lower 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Some lower cigs expected across area terminals closer to daybreak
with some improvement expected throughout the day. While some
terminals will see VFR conditions Thursday, some MVFR cigs will
persist at times. Rain and storms are possible after 19/00z from
north to central Arkansas. Overall coverage is still in question,
but went ahead and introduced some prob30 groups to account for
the possibility. Winds will generally be S-SW with gusts
approaching 20 kts at times during the day. A cold front will
begin to move from N-S across the area near the end of the
period, bringing N-NW winds in its wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  54  69  50 /  40  70  10  50
Camden AR         83  60  68  53 /  40  60  20  40
Harrison AR       86  47  66  47 /  60  40  10  40
Hot Springs AR    84  56  67  49 /  30  70  20  60
Little Rock   AR  86  59  68  53 /  40  70  20  50
Monticello AR     84  62  70  56 /  50  60  20  30
Mount Ida AR      84  54  67  49 /  40  80  30  70
Mountain Home AR  87  48  68  48 /  60  50  10  40
Newport AR        86  55  69  51 /  40  70  10  40
Pine Bluff AR     85  59  67  53 /  40  70  20  40
Russellville AR   86  54  70  51 /  50  50  10  50
Searcy AR         85  55  68  50 /  30  70  10  40
Stuttgart AR      84  58  67  53 /  40  70  20  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...67