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000
FXUS64 KLZK 201120 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
620 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXTENDING FROM MO INTO NORTH CENTRAL AR
THIS MORNING...WITH VCTS CONTINUING IN THE TAF FOR THE NRN SITES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOME SITES WERE SEEING SOME MVFR
CIGS...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS OUTSIDE ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO...SOME AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD
COULD SEE A BIT OF LOW END LLWS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AS SFC WINDS
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. BREEZY SRLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN TROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MENTIONED VCTS ACROSS THE NRN
SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL TSRA COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND INTO TUE MORNING...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PROB30 OR VCTS
MENTIONED FOR TSRA POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD OF THE TAF. SOME
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS COULD BE SEEN UNDER THE PRECIP ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

STORMS FORMED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND
MOVED NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND ARE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. HAVE KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AS MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE NOON.

QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ON ANY
LINGERING BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE NAM
AND NOW THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON THIS...AHEAD OF ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OFF LOW LEVEL JET AROUND SUNSET. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY...BECAUSE IF ANY CELL IS DISCRETE...SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

THIS EVENING...STORMS WILL FORM ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AS FRONT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL JET. THE
STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ALSO...WITH
THE SLOW MOTION AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE STATE TUESDAY...WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL CONTINUING. HOWEVER...TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE AS
GREAT DUE TO LESSENING SHEAR. FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN FOR
TUESDAY...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO THE STATE FROM THE NE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...STALLING ACROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE.
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE STATE FOR
FRI...BUT AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AND SRN MS RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT OF THE RIDGING ALOFT...DECREASE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
WELL AS INCREASING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  69  80  65 /  20  50  70  70
CAMDEN AR         89  70  87  67 /  10  20  40  70
HARRISON AR       81  66  78  60 /  30  80  70  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  71  84  67 /  10  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  70  84  68 /  10  30  60  70
MONTICELLO AR     90  72  88  69 /  10  10  40  70
MOUNT IDA AR      87  70  83  64 /  20  40  60  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  67  77  61 /  30  80  70  70
NEWPORT AR        86  70  82  67 /  10  40  60  80
PINE BLUFF AR     89  71  86  69 /  10  20  50  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  68  80  63 /  20  50  70  70
SEARCY AR         87  69  82  66 /  10  30  60  70
STUTTGART AR      88  71  85  68 /  10  20  50  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62