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000
FXUS64 KLZK 180543
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1243 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT AND STALL IN NORTH
LOUISIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING
THEN DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AND SOME LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT STILL HAVE A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME -SHRA OR EVEN -TSRA
MAY AFFECT SOME SITES THROUGH 06Z. BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTHERN
SITES LIKE KHOT...KPBF...ETC. OTHERWISE IT SEEMS THAT ANY
CONVECTION WILL MISS KLIT AND SITES NORTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS VERY
INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING MVFR VSBY AND/OR CIGS OVERNIGHT. HAVE
TRENDED AWAY FROM THE BULLISH AND PROLONGED MVFR CONDITIONS
OFFERED UP BY MOS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THINK THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME MVFR VSBY/CIGS AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SO HAVE A
TEMPO FROM 11Z-14Z FOR MOST SITES ACCORDINGLY. TOMORROW THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT...AS WITH RECENT
DAYS...CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRECLUDES
MY MENTIONING THEM IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. THAT SAID...KPBF AND
KLLQ STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR -SHRA/-TSRA CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE. MODELS ALL IN BASIC
AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE WASHING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. CAUTION
MUST ALWAYS BE EXERCISED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MOVING ANY TYPE OF
FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BUT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING IT...WILL USE
A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS BUT ADJUST THE TIMING ACCORDINGLY.

LAST NIGHTS MCS THAT WAS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN ARKANSAS HAS
REDEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING
FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. MAIN CONCERN FROM THESE
STORMS REMAINS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE SEEING
RAINFALL RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR THANKS TO A VERY JUICY AIR MASS
IN PLACE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES REMAIN...PRIMARILY OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS.

OTHER CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AT THIS TIME AS MCV MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
LIKELY FROM THIS FEATURE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. IN ADDITION TO
THE MCV...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK WHERE IS WILL
STALL FOR A BIT BEFORE REACHING THE LOUISIANA BORDER BY EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE BOUNDARY
FINALLY DOES WASH OUT WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE CLIMBING ABOVE ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
EXTENDED...BRINGING A RETURN TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS APPROACHING
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  67  88  68 /  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         88  69  92  71 /  40  20  30  10
HARRISON AR       83  64  86  67 /  20  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  67  90  70 /  30  20  30  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  69  90  70 /  30  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     87  70  91  71 /  40  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      86  66  89  70 /  20  20  30  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /  20  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        87  68  89  69 /  30  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  69  91  71 /  40  20  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  67  89  69 /  20  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  68  90  69 /  30  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      87  69  91  71 /  40  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51