000
FXUS64 KLZK 171741 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...
MCV MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE TRIED TO
TIME WITH VCTS/VCSH PREVAILING AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
DUE TO TERRAIN...ADDED MVFR CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN SITES...BUT
KEPT ONLY A SCATTERED MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOG POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL DEPEND ON RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATED NEEDED THIS MORNING TO REWORK PRECIPITATION GRIDS. AREA
OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. STILL SOME
QUESTION IF THIS AREA WILL MAKE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING AND POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACCORDINGLY IN THESE
AREAS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE STATE FOR RAIN STILL APPEAR TO BE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND
TEMPERATURES WARM WITH A VERY JUICY AIR MASS IN PLACE. 12Z LZK
SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 1.9 INCHES. PRECIP GRIDS ALSO TWEAKED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH TODAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN MCS WILL ARRIVE FROM OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. LOOKS
UNSETTLED TODAY...WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL HANG AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE MORE
SPOTTY FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT/BELOW NORMAL.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOULD
BE APPRECIABLE...WITH ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS IN MANY AREAS...AND
LOCALLY MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN BY
THURSDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL EASE INTO ARKANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY.
NORTH FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS FRIDAY BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES
CONTROL OF THE STATE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS FRIDAY.
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58