000
FXUS64 KLZK 231110 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
610 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN WITH SOME BROKEN CEILINGS DUE TO
CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA SPREADING SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN AT CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...BUT ONLY WENT WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER OR REDEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE W TO NW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO AR LATE DAY TO THIS
EVENING AND BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BUT REMAIN VFR...WHILE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SE OVER SWRN AR THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
FLOW TURNS NW OVER THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER SOME
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AT THE SAME TIME A COLD
FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE THE BEST POPS...EVEN THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE...ACROSS THE WRN
AND SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SW AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT AGAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR NOW AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SW.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S ON FRI. SAT MORNING LOWS WILL BE COOL...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WARMING WILL BEGIN BY SAT AFTERNOON AS SFC WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH...AS WELL AS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL
BEGIN WEAKENING SOME LATE FOR SUN. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL
RIDGE OVER THIS WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NW OF THE
STATE...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN
COUNTIES SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE BACK IN THE 70S
AND 80S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST GENERALLY HAS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST OF AR WITH A SOUTH WIND FLOW INTO THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL TO EASTERN
PLAINS AND TO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH GRADUAL INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. EARLY IN THE EXTEND FORECAST SOME UPPER ENERGY MAY REACH
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS IN THE
FORECAST OVER THESE AREAS. AFTER THAT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
SHOULD KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW...AND MAINLY ONLY AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE AT
OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  53  73  51 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         89  64  79  58 /  20  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       76  52  72  52 /  10  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  61  77  56 /  20  20  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  60  75  55 /  10  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     89  62  78  56 /  20  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      85  60  77  56 /  20  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  77  51  73  52 /  10  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        81  54  73  51 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     87  61  76  55 /  20  20   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  59  76  55 /  10  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         83  57  73  51 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      85  59  74  53 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...59