000
FXUS64 KLZK 170551
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1251 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST.
THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

UPDATE...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURE AND RADAR
TRENDS. EVOLUTION OF ONGOING CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AS SUCH...BUMPED UP POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER STORM COVERAGE THERE BUT STUCK
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFTS BROAD-BRUSHED 30 PERCENT POPS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID...I DID SWITCH TO COVERAGE WORDING...SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTIES IN EVOLUTION
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AND JUST
TWEAKED EXPECTED TEMPERATURE CURVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS DUE TO EXPECTED
SHOWERS/STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL BE HIT OR MISS...WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST
ALL THE MORE CHALLENGING. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH NEAR HRO...AND ALONG
THE LA BORDER IN FAR SRN AR. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE
ONGOING...WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...AREAS ACROSS THE SERN CWA WERE SEEING TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S WERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MORE DOMINANT.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE SE IN THE WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT OVER AR. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON ANY RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

A SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FOR
MON...WITH HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE
FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. WITH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER...EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NW...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FURTHER SOUTH. SOME 90S COULD AGAIN BE
SEEN ACROSS THE FAR SE...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH
ON MON AFTERNOON.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE...THIS TIME AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE STATE. BY TUE AFTERNOON...BEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
TUE NIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON WED AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES
OVER AR. AS A RESULT...POPS WILL INCREASE BACK NORTH AS THE
DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR LIFTS NE AWAY FROM AR.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PD. HIGH PRES ALOFT WL CONT TO
STRENGTHEN OVR THE REGION HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPS WL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  68  86  68 /  70  40  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  72  85  70 /  60  60  60  30
HARRISON AR       79  65  84  65 /  70  30  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  69  85  68 /  70  60  50  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  70  86  70 /  70  60  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     90  72  86  71 /  60  60  60  30
MOUNT IDA AR      86  68  84  67 /  70  60  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  66  86  66 /  70  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        86  69  87  69 /  70  50  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  71  86  70 /  60  60  50  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  68  86  68 /  70  50  40  20
SEARCY AR         85  69  86  69 /  70  50  30  10
STUTTGART AR      88  70  86  70 /  70  60  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51