000
FXUS64 KLZK 220538 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1235 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CLOUD CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR
AND VERY ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AR
OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS FROM THE SE TO S AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS...TO
THE W TO NW AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WITH PATCHY MVFR. PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD STAY AT MVFR LEVELS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

.UPDATE...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST HAVE ENDED...WITH THE
TORNADO WATCH DISCONTINUED. RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
ARKANSAS WILL MOSTLY END OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...IN A
REGION OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY...AND OVERALL FORCING. EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS PROVIDED SOME CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RECOVERY WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
STILL EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF OBSERVED INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

SEVERE/FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...
INCLUDING ARKANSAS...THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE SUNDAY. LACKING MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT
THIS TIME. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  83  57  81 / 100  60  10   0
CAMDEN AR         66  85  60  88 /  80  60  10  10
HARRISON AR       56  79  53  80 / 100  30  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  84  58  85 / 100  50  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  85  61  85 / 100  60  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     67  85  62  88 /  60  70  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  83  57  84 / 100  50  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  80  54  79 / 100  40  10   0
NEWPORT AR        64  84  60  82 /  90  60  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     67  85  62  86 /  80  70  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  83  57  84 / 100  50  10   0
SEARCY AR         64  84  59  83 / 100  60  10   0
STUTTGART AR      66  85  63  85 /  80  70  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...51