000
FXUS64 KLZK 132258 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
558 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH A BIT IN MOST AREAS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AOA 10 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS IS PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY THOUGH FLATTEN OUT
SOMEWHAT. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
RIDGING QUICKLY RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED EAST AND DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING SUNNY
SKIES OVER MUCH OF ARKANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA AND SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED...AND COULD BE MORE GUSTY
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASES INSTABILITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED HAS NOT DEVIATED A GREAT DEAL FROM
THIS MORNING AND AS SUCH...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKING IS NEEDED TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. BASED ON CONTINUITY SAKE...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

PERIOD WILL INITIATE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE STATE IN THE SHORT TERM WELL TO THE EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD IN. WITH PWATS NEAR A HALF
INCH... PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY.
RIDGE GETS MORE ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
FORECAST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND BE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE
BY LATE SUNDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE LAGGING JUST BEHIND BUT WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH IN THE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME THAT ADDITIONAL
POPS WILL BE WARRANTED. PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS ACTUALLY AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAV/MEX
NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57