000
FXUS64 KLZK 130834
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
334 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE NATION/S
MID SECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
ARKANSAS AS A RESULT...WITH LOW 80S BEING SEEN THIS AFTERNOON IN
WESTERN ARKANSAS AND WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY.

CAUGHT BENEATH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE A SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. BY TUE EVENING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL PICK UP THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND DRAG IT
ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS DO
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON WHAT HOW THIS SITUATION WILL EVOLVE. THERE IS
SOME AMOUNT OF PHASING IN THE GFS AND THE NAM...WHICH SHOW SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOC WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY WED. BUT THEN RAINFALL BECOMES MORE FOCUSED
ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN MISSOURI THAT IS ASSOC WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM. THE EURO SHOWS LESS PHASING...AND HAS MORE
WIDESPREAD AND LONGER DURATION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS ARKANSAS
WED THROUGH THURSDAY. TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE EURO WITH
REGARD TO RAIN CHANCES AND AREAL COVERAGE...HOWEVER I DID LIMIT
POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS APPLIES
TO THE BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS I LEFT IN ON THURSDAY AS WELL. I
WOULD EXPECT THAT MODEL RUNS FROM THIS EVENING WILL HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THINGS AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED BY
WEST COAST UPPER AIR NETWORKS.

AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
TO NORMAL VALUES ON WED THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. THE
SAME WILL BE TRUE FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS.



&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN...AND AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  57  87  62 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         81  56  87  59 /   0   0   0  20
HARRISON AR       78  58  86  62 /  10   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    81  58  87  61 /   0   0   0  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  80  58  87  61 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     78  57  86  60 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      83  59  86  60 /  10   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  77  56  88  61 /  10   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        76  57  87  62 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     78  57  85  60 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  56  88  61 /  10   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         76  56  86  60 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      77  57  85  61 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46