000
FXUS64 KLZK 150546 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1246 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE
IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A FASTER PROGRESSION WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM...AND INTRODUCED VCSH/TSRA SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS TAFS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TSRA AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHOT AND KADF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE PROB30 WILL SUFFICE AT
KHRO...KBPK AND KLIT. THE SOUTHEAST SITES WILL ONLY HAVE VCSH WITH
THIS TAF CYCLE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY DECENT SHAPE AND OTHER THAN
SOME TWEAKING HERE AND THERE...WILL GENERALLY BE LEFT IN TACT. NAM
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE ITS NORMAL FEEDBACK CONCERNS WHEN DEALING WITH QPF. WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS FAR AS TIMING IS
CONCERNED BUT WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR ACTUAL PRECIP
AMOUNTS.

UPPER RIDGING HAS PROVIDED THE STATE WITH CLEAR SKIES WITH EVEN
AFTERNOON CUMULUS HARD TO COME BY THANKS TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE... HAVE RESULTED
IN WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE STATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
WARM READINGS TODAY BREAKING DOWN AS AN ELONGATED TROF AXIS...NOW
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OLD MEXICO TO WESTERN TEXAS BEGINS TO LEFT
OUT.

TROF/WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN
ARKANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THE END
OF THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOISTEN WITH TIME AND
IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AND STATEWIDE THURSDAY. THAT IS NOT TO SAY SOME SHOWERS
WILL NOT PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH BUT
PEAK HEATING HOURS ARE DEFINITELY MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME FOR
HIGHER POPS. QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY HIGH AS THIS
POINT EXCEPT UNDER ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.

STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED AS UPPER RIDGING ONCE
AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY
AND EVEN A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
CLIMB ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY BUT BIGGER WARM UP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK A TOUCH
COOL DURING THE DAY BUT OTHERWISE ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
RIDGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL KEEP THE END OF THE WEEK SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
KEPT SCATTERED POPS IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS USHERED INTO THE REGION. LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT...ALLOWING THE
BOUNDARY TO WOBBLE BACK IN FORTH ACROSS THE STATE. ALTHOUGH
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58