000
FXUS64 KLZK 140117
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
817 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE BOUNDARY EASY TO SPOT ON WSR-88D IMAGERY. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...NOT EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN TOGETHER MUCH
LONGER. CURRENT PRECIPITATION GRIDS...AND ALL GRIDS FOR THAT
MATTER...REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOUNDARY ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH LOWER. DEW POINT AT THE WFO HAVE DROPPED 8
DEGREES IN THE PAST HOUR AFTER FROPA WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING
SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. A SHOWER
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF CONWAY AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO BE A SHORT LIVED SHOWER BUT BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LIT AND PBF FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING LATE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

W-E ORIENTED CDFNT WAS SITUATED ACRS CNTRL AR AT MID AFTN. DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S HAVE POOLED IN THE VCNTY OF THE BNDRY...
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. HAVE SEEN A
FEW WEAK RADAR RETURNS OVR ERN AR. THE RUC AND HRRR MODELS CONT TO
INDCD ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DVLPG ALONG THE FNT OVR CNTRL/SERN AR LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THUS...WL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PER
GOING FCST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT TO THE SW OF THE
AREA BY FRI AS A WEAK SFC RDG BLDS INTO AR. THE BNDRY WL MEANDER IN
THE VCNTY OF WRN AR HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OF A STRAY
SHRA/TSRA FRI AND SAT ALONG WITH WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RDG...BUT
WL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE. E/NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL
BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO MUCH OF THE FA.

THE SFC HIGH WL WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUN/SUN NGT FOR A RETURN OF SLY
WINDS...ALONG WITH INCRSG LOW LVL RH. MEANWHILE...THE UPR LVL FLOW
WL FLATTEN TO ALLOW A NEW CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE N...ALONG WITH A
BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WL CONT INTO THE LONG
TERM PD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE STATE FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE STATE. MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF MOVING THIS FRONT FURTHER INTO THE STATE
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES DWINDLING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH...
WHILE NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL HAVE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  87  64  89 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         71  94  65  94 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  87  65  90 /   0  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  91  67  93 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  90  68  92 /  10   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  91  66  93 /  20   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      68  92  64  91 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  86  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        67  87  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  91  66  91 /  20   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  90  67  92 /   0  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         69  89  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      70  89  67  90 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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