000
FXUS64 KLZK 180012 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
712 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTIVE CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...LEAVING NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS PRETTY MOIST SO EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...TO DEVELOP AFTER ROUGHLY 08Z. SHOULD ALSO
SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL TONIGHT AS
WELL. SOME TEMPORARY IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AT KHOT...KADF...KHRO AND
KBPK. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE OVERALL CHANCES OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THEN CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS NEXT WITH
STRONGER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL OVERALL BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.

THIS AFTERNOON MAIN UPPER LOBE OF LIFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...WHILE VERY ISOLATED IN THE CWA. MORNING CLOUDS HAVE
THINNED AND BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF AR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NW TO
CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUED OVER SW...SOUTH TO PARTS OF
FAR EAST AR. TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE 70S WITH SOME AROUND 80
DEGREE MARKS. THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED TO THE TN VALLEY AND TAKEN
MUCH OF THE LIFT WITH IT. A TRAILING WEAK SHEAR ZONE HAS REMAINED
OVER SOUTHERN AR WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING
BEFORE HEATING SETTLES DOWN. IN PLACE ATMOSPHERE DOES REMAIN MOIST
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF FAR E AND
FAR SOUTH AR INTO THE EARLIER EVENING HOURS...THEN DROP IT OFF
AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT WITH MORE CLEARING SKIES...AND WILL AGAIN
SEE AREAS OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POP SILENT AT THIS
TIME BUT WITH IN PLACE MOISTURE...TEMPS WARMING TO THE 80S...COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP. BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA...ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE SUPPRESSED. ON
SUNDAY...NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR AR...WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. SOME UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS...CLOSER
TO NW AR...BUT SHOULD STILL HOLD OUT OF THE STATE. THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES
CLOSER TO AR...AND FORECAST HAS CHANCES COMING INTO NW AR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS TREND CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN U.S. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECASTER. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
ARKANSAS TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO ARKANSAS
WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT THEN MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND COULD STALL IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  66  87  66 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         82  69  88  67 /  40  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       80  65  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    80  68  88  68 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  81  67  87  69 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     81  69  88  68 /  60  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      78  66  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  65  87  66 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        78  65  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     80  68  87  68 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  66  87  67 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         79  67  86  66 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      80  68  87  68 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64