000
FXUS64 KLZK 181730
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH...WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE STATE. MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTH. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED MVFR CONDITIONS...AND MAY NEED TO ADD FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO WET
GROUND WITH RECENT RAINFALL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM
THE EAST/NORTHEAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

UPDATE...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED TO
NEAR THE AR AND LA STATE LINE...WITH A POOLING OF 70 DEW POINT
TEMPS WHILE A SOUTH WIND A KELD AT 15Z. NE SURFACE FLOW HAS
LOWERED DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MID 60S OVER NE AR...WHILE STILL
UPPER 60S CENTRAL AREAS. CLOUDS HAVE BROKE OVER NORTHERN
AR...WHILE CENTRAL TO SOUTH...AREAS OF STRATUS ARE HOLDING ON AND
SOME UPPER CLOUDS OVER NE TX ARE MOVING IN OVER THE AREA. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL BE SEEN OVER N AR...WHILE PARTLY SUNNY CENTRAL
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
ALSO PUSHED SOUTH TO FAR SOUTHERN AR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND WITH THE UPPER NW FLOW...TRENDS HAVE IT MAIN MOVING
SE AND AFFECTING N LA AND FAR S AR. WILL TRIM CONVECTION CHANCES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL LIFT FOCUS
FAR SOUTH AR AND LA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AR...BUT OVERALL CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW OTHER THAN
THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE TEMPS ON TRACK AND WILL FINE TUNE FORECAST
WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE LOUISIANA BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND WILL
NUDGE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. IF THERE ARE ANY STORMS...THEY
WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS THE PERIOD
BEGINS...AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND KEEP CHANCES FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION VERY LOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  67  88  68 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         88  69  92  71 /  30  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       83  64  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     87  70  91  71 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      86  66  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        87  68  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  69  91  71 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  67  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         87  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      87  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58