000
FXUS64 KLZK 171150 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.AVIATION...
SHRA CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE IN THE SHRA...WITH IFR ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
CLEARED OUT EARLIER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...BECOMING
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT ONLY SCT025 GOING AFTER 18/01Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPR LOW WAS CENTERED VCNTY OF THE AR/MO BRDR EARLY THIS MRNG.
IMPULSES ROTATING ARND THIS FEATURE CONT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHRA/
EMBEDDED TSRA ACRS PRIMARILY ERN AND SRN AR. PLAN TO MAKE A LAST
MINUTE DECISION REGARDING FIRST PD POP TRENDS. PTCHY FOG CONTS TO
FORM OVR THE AREA AND EXPECT THIS LINGER AT LEAST THRU SUNRISE.

THE UPR LVL LOW WL CONT TO SHIFT EWD TODAY...WITH RAIN CHCS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE WL
RESULT IN PTCHY FORMATION ONCE AGAIN TNGT AND EARLY SAT MRNG. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA OVR PARTS OF NERN AR SAT AFTN...DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WL CONT TO KEEP POPS BLW
THRESHOLD CRITERIA.

DAYTIME TEMPS WL BE RETURNING TO ABV NORMAL LVLS OVR THE WEEKEND AS
A WEAK UPR RDG WORKS ACRS THE MID SOUTH. THE NEXT STORM SYS WL SLOLY
APCH AR FM THE PLAINS STATES STARTING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. MOST
OF THE MODELS CONT TO INDC A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYS...WITH
THE BEST CHCS OF CONVECTION RMNG TO THE NW OF THE FA THRU MON NGT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE REMNANTS OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS AFFECTING PARTS
OF NRN AND WRN AR LATER SUN NGT AND AGAIN MON NGT...SO WL KEEP A
MENTION OF SCTD POPS IN FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THIS SYS WL EVENTUALLY
WORK INTO AR BEYOND THIS FCST PD...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF MORE
ACTIVE WX.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST IN
THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY. AS THE LOW
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...AND OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING
NATURE...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.

&&

$$

AVIATION...58