000
FXUS64 KLZK 182355 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
655 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE
BEING A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO THE STATE.
KLIT...KHOT...KPBF...ETC...WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH AS MOIST AN AIR MASS IN PLACE...STILL
THINK MVFR VSBY AND CIGS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THESE SITES BUT DO
NOT THINK THAT EITHER OBSERVATION WILL BE AS LOW AS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE 5SM VSBY WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN-OVC015
CIGS STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK. UP NORTH IT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO
KNOW WHAT WILL OCCUR. HAVE VSBY DROPPING TO 3SM UP NORTH. ADDED
SOME FEW010 CLOUDS IN DURING THE 3SM VSBY PERIODS. GIVEN BOTH KHRO
AND KBPK ARE REPORTING 5SM AND HZ AS OF 23Z...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF VSBY DROPS TO AROUND 1SM AND THERE ARE LEGITIMATE
CIGS OF 800-1000 FT AGL AFTER 10Z. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON TAKING
TAFS IN TOO PESSIMISTIC A DIRECTION FOR THE TIME BEING TO SEE WHAT
OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON CU SCT035-045
WILL BE SEEN AT ALL SITES TOMORROW...AND WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO
AROUND 19012G22KT STATEWIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CONVECTION CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRONG SYSTEM...AND SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. MINOR CHANCES OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE IN SPOTS...WILL BE SEEN.

MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED...BUT MORNING STRATUS HAS HELD IN SPOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF MIXING AND ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION
OVER AR. POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN AR WITH
CLOUDS THINNING SOUTH OF IT...WHILE NORTH...MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...BUT MAY
TAKE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AS UPPER SYSTEM OUT WEST SLOWS DUE TO
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
NOTED OVER NE TO E AR EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELD BACK DUE TO CLOUDS AND INVERSION.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE STATE WITH 12Z KLZK
SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.43 INCHES WHILE DEW
POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS EAST TODAY AND IS
CENTERED ALONG THE AR/OK/KS/MO STATE LINES.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN FIRST PERIOD DUE TO
CAP AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ANY DEVELOP LOW. PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT WITH MILD TEMPS AND PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE IN
SPOTS. ON SUNDAY...A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND MUGGY DAY. MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE OVER AR...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL KEEP THE CWA DAY...BUT INDICATE TREND
OVER NW AR. SUNDAY NIGHT AGAIN MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS...HAS
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN AR...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES A BIT MORE EAST. POP TREND FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE OVER NW AR
INDICATED IN FORECAST. ON MONDAY...AGAIN MUCH OF THE UPPER LIFT
REMAINS OVER WEST TO NORTHERN AR...AND FORECAST HAS THIS
INDICATED. MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE MORE EAST AND ROTATE MUCH STRONG UPPER LIFT INTO AR. THE
BETTER CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT AR WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER NW AREAS...TUESDAY OVER WEST TO CENTRAL...
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY OVER ALL OF THE STATE...THEN FINALLY
PUSHING EAST LATER ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALL SEVERE STORM THREATS
WILL MATERIALIZE AS THIS STRONG SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AR...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS FOR
TEMPS...AROUND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WILL BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS LOW
WILL MEANDER AROUND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY AND STALL
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  69  88  69 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         92  70  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       83  68  87  67 /  10  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     88  70  89  71 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      87  70  87  70 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  83  69  89  67 /  20  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        84  70  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     87  71  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  66  89  69 /  10  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         82  69  86  69 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  70  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64