Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 

000
FXUS64 KLZK 230526 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1225 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN ON THURSDAY BECOME MORE W TO NW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO AR LATE DAY TO THURSDAY
EVENING AND BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BUT REMAIN VFR...WHILE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCATTERED
CU ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
INSTABILITY ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM
1000-1500 K/JG ACROSS THE AREA. ANY FORCING MECHANISMS TO REALIZE
THIS ENERGY WOULD BE VERY SMALL SCALE IN NATURE...AND LIKELY NOT
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ANY CONVECTION BEFORE THE LOSS OF SOLAR
INSOLATION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL AFFECT THE STATE ON THURSDAY.  FORCING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED...WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER SOUTH THE REGION BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...AND WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH MONDAY AND BEGIN MOVING
EAST LATE TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH ALSO DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
TUESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT SUNDAY WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$
USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.