Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 251314
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for spring lake admin burn...usfs
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
814 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...

A mostly sunny, yet breezy day is forecast for today with
precipitation chances moving in during the evening and overnight
hours.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........63 at ignition...Max 82.
RH..................66 percent at ignition...Min 48 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....East around 5 mph shifting to the southeast 5
                    to 9 mph early in the morning, then increasing
                    to south 15 to 24 mph late in the morning
                    increasing to 22 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds east at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 5 to 12 mph.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Dispersion..........9 increasing to 64.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 12 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4847 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  68  73  76  79  80  82  82  82
RH..............66  58  51  50  49  49  48  48  50
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  12  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Eye lvl wnd dir.E   E   E   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7
Eye lvl wnd gst.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.15  18  22  24  25  25  24  23  22
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 66.
RH..................Max 88 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 22 mph.
Stability class.....E.
20 Foot Winds.......South winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms after midnight.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Dispersion..........57 decreasing to 28 early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 9 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............82  79  77  75  73  72  71  70  70  69  69  69
RH..............53  58  63  68  74  76  79  81  82  83  84  85
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   9   9   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.22  21  21  21  21  21  21  21  20  20  18  17
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  40  40  40  40  40  40

.WEDNESDAY...

Temperature.........Max 74.
RH..................Min 76 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 22 mph increasing to 26 to 29 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Dispersion..........33 increasing to 42 in the late morning and
                    early afternoon, then increasing to 58 late in
                    the afternoon increasing to 77 late in the
                    afternoon decreasing to 63.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 12 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3803 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Temp............68  68  69  71  72  72  73  72  72  72  70  69
RH..............86  88  85  82  81  78  77  77  76  77  80  79
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   8   12  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   7   7   7   7   7   7
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  16  17  21  22  21  20  20  22  26  29  29
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  70  70  70  80  80  80  80  80  80

$$
Forecaster...S Clarke
Requested by...Brad Evans
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707740.0/LZK
.EMAIL bradfordevans@fs.fed.us


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