Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FNUS74 KLZK 151333
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Site Prep Block #4 Mt. Magazine...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
733 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CST on February 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy southwest winds expected today, with just a slight chance
of a shower.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........71 at ignition...Max 73.
RH..................66 percent at ignition...Min 63 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 23 mph increasing to around 21
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds southwest at 13 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 8 to 13
                    mph with gusts to around 25 mph.
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    in the morning.
Dispersion..........42 increasing to 58 in the late morning and
                    early afternoon, then decreasing to 50 late in
                    the afternoon decreasing to 36 late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3700 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4825 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............71  72  73  71  69
RH..............66  63  63  65  69
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..13  13  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25  25  25
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.8   8   8   8   8
Eye lvl wnd gst.25  25  25  25  25
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.30  31  30  25  21
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 44.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 23 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 9 to 16 mph after midnight.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 7 to 10 mph after midnight.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    in the evening, then rain showers likely after
                    midnight.
Dispersion..........23 early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 7 to 10 mph after midnight.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4737 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............67  65  65  64  63  61  60  58  56  53  51  49
RH..............75  74  77  82  85  88  93  95  98  100 97  92
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  N
Transp wind spd.17  18  22  23  20  15  12  10  9   10  13  16
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  40  40  40  60  60  60  60  60  60

.FRIDAY...

Temperature.........Max 46.
RH..................Min 57 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 18 mph.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......North winds 6 to 10 mph.
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Dispersion..........28 decreasing to 19 late in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....North winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4344 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  46  44  44  43  42  42  42  41  41  41  41
RH..............86  82  77  71  70  69  67  66  65  64  61  59
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Eye lvl wnd spd.6   6   6   6   6   6   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E
Transp wind spd.18  17  16  14  13  12  10  9   9   9   9   10
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  40  40  40  30  30  30  30  30  30

$$
Forecaster...44
Requested by...Robert James
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1801994.0/LZK
.EMAIL robertjames@fs.fed.us


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.