Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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015
FNUS74 KLZK 211406
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Lane Bend...Buffalo National River
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
806 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CST on November 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...
South winds will bring an increase in low level moisture this
morning in advance of a cold front that will move through the area
early this afternoon. Much cooler and drier air will move in
behind the front tonight and Wed.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........56 at ignition...Max 63.
RH..................51 percent at ignition...Min 41 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 12 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds south at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Dispersion..........11 increasing to 26.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Eye level winds.....South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4983 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............56  59  61  62  63  58  53
RH..............51  47  44  43  41  47  57
20 FT wind dir..S   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.    10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.    10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Transp wind spd.10  9   9   9   10  12  12
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 28.
RH..................Max 74 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 14 mph.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 6 mph.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Dispersion..........5 early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....North winds 5 to 6 mph.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............49  46  43  41  39  37  35  34  33  32  30  30
RH..............63  68  70  74  74  73  72  72  71  70  70  69
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.12  12  10  10  12  13  14  13  10  9   7   6
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.WEDNESDAY...

Temperature.........Max 49.
RH..................Min 26 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Northeast 1 to 9 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the morning
                    becoming light.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Dispersion..........8 increasing to 13 in the late morning and
                    early afternoon, then decreasing to 4 late in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Eye level winds.....North winds around 5 mph in the morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2900 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3468 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............28  28  29  33  38  41  45  47  48  49  48  46
RH..............70  72  70  61  49  41  35  31  28  26  28  34
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.                        5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.                        5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   NE
Transp wind spd.6   7   8   9   8   7   6   5   5   3   2   1
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...B Smith
Requested by...Tim Fondriest
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719064.0/LZK
.EMAIL timothy_fondriest@nps.gov



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