National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 192319
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
619 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY NORMAL EARLY/MID SUMMER WEATHER TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. 12Z NAM
MODEL DEPICTS LITTLE TO NO NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM
SOUTHERN KS INTO THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHWARD
MOVING MCS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. GFS FAILED TO INITIALIZE
THIS MCS AND APPEARS A LITTLE NOISIER WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD... WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I40CORRIDOR.
GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HEIGHT RIDGE OVER TX WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS BY FRIDAY. A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS OVER AL/GA WILL HELP ORGANIZE DIURNALLY ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORMS... A FEW OF WHICH WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO NORTHEAST
MS. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER DEEPER INTO THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN AR.

FOR THE WEEKEND PERIODS...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
LOW WILL WEAKEN...BUT LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENTLY SO TO PRECLUDE
MENTIONABLE DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES EAST OF THE MS RIVER. EARLY
NEXT WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.

PWB

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TAF SITES.  SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
THE KMKL AREA WHERE VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  71  93  73  91 /  10  10  20  10
MKL  63  89  65  91 /  10  20  20  10
JBR  69  91  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
TUP  67  91  68  91 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office