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000
FXUS63 KPAH 201826
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AIRMASS UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO LIFTING MECHANISMS AT
THIS TIME SO JUST CU...WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION COULD MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. SHOULD BE A LULL...THEN A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPS
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS AND OPENING IT UP
AS A PROGRESSIVE/POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...THEN MOVING THIS WAVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
AND STRONGLY PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SMALL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR/MESOSCALE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE LAPSE RATES ON A SMALLER
SCALE. THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POPS/WEATHER ARE ACTUALLY
LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

GIVEN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE UTILIZED TOWARD THIS
FORECAST...MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AND
LOWERED DEWPOINT GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL BIASES. IN
ADDITION...HAD TO VEER SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY TO COUNT FOR
INITIALIZATION ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SCT-BKN CU WITH SSW WINDS GENERALLY 10-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
IS UNSTABLE...BUT LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. KEPT PROB30S FOR TSRA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS LEVELING OFF.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$