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000
FXUS63 KPAH 240857
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
357 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR THE SEASON. HIGHS TODAY
NEAR 70 WILL EDGE INTO THE MID 70S SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S.

AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND...A WARMING
TREND WILL YIELD INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE
REGION...WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.

THE CONSISTENT GFS REMAINS THE FURTHEST NORTH IN DEPICTING RAIN
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND THUS IS THE DRIEST MODEL
LOCALLY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST
SOUTH...BUT ITS 24/00Z RUN HAS FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF TRENDING
TOWARDS THE GFS. THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE SCENARIO
WE HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PORTRAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EVEN WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DRY
TIME BETWEEN THE RAIN CHANCES TO ENJOY MEMORIAL DAY ACTIVITIES.
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IF NOT
80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT THE BETTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM FRONT
DRAPED NW-SE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS OF ITS EXACT
LOCATION AND MOVEMENT. OF COURSE MINOR DETAILS SUCH AS THESE WILL
DETERMINE WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE.

REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS CLOSER TO REALITY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

MONDAY NIGHT MODELS BEGIN BUILDING AN H5 RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

FROM TUESDAY ON MODELS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WILL QUICKLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THE LAST OF THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF KOWB
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...AND SKC WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT WITH MIXING MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING A NORTHEAST
WIND AT 5 TO 10KTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CALM OR VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS