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000
FXUS63 KPAH 192239
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
539 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A SFC BOUNDARY/THETA E GRADIENT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AN H5 RIDGE
BUILDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AREA WIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT...IT WILL ALLOW A
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS TO APPROACH THE REGION...SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY...BUT ONLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF OUR CWA TO BE AFFECTED BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AS IS TYPICAL OVER TIME...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...BUT WITH THAT SAID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO CROSS OUR
CWA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND AN
INCREASE IN FORCING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...CHANCES OF A FEW
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TIMING...IT APPEARS
THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS SW INDIANA AND PARTS OF
WESTERN KY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 500
MB SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY APPEAR DRY AND COOLER AS A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONE OUTLIER TO THIS
SOLUTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH PRODUCES WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN
RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT OVER THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER REGION.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS/GEFS AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED. 00Z ECMWF MOS AND 12Z GFS MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HIGH TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS.

ON SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF MOS REMAIN
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SOME HAZE AROUND EVV AND OWB IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO GUST TO NEAR 20 AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. MAY
HAVE TO INTRODUCE A LOW DECK FOR LAST LEG OF TAF AT ALL
SITES...BUT FORECAST SOUNDING ARE NOT SENDING A STRONG ENOUGH
SIGNAL ATTM. WILL ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO INCLUDE LOW DECK ON NEXT
ISSUANCE WHICH EXTENDS INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH