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000
FXUS65 KVEF 182209
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
308 PM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON SUNDAY AS
GENERALLY DRY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING LOCAL GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A STORM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY WILL THEN BRING LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BEING NEAR
NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON...DRYING AND STABILIZING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SEEN ACROSS LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTY AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS FOR
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED TO MAINLY SOUTHERN UTAH AND
EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY.

THE NEXT WEAK STORM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
TONIGHT AND ACROSS UTAH ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE SEEN OVER THE CWA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE ON MONDAY IN THE NORTH WIND PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH MAY BE SEEN ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MAY CREATE FIRE
WEATHER PROBLEMS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. WINDS
WILL BE DECREASING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST...WHILE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. THIS FLOW THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A PACIFIC LOW MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY DURING THE
SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND STRENGTH AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ROUND
THE BASE OF THE LOW AND EJECT INLAND. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
EACH SHORTWAVE EXTENDS...WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF WIND
EXPECTED WITHIN THE CWA. TAKING A LOOK AT GFS PROGS FOR THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND SPEED...FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL COULD BE A CONCERN ALMOST EVERY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND OVER SOME PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DETAILS ON THIS
EVOLVING PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS THE EVENT APPROACHES BUT
FOR NOW...EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION UP TO 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES. A FEW CU AROUND 12K FEET ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN OR NEAR THE MORMON MESA
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY THEN SHIFTING NORTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT
AND  SUNDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25KTS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT REGION UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS
MORE WESTERLY IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST
WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 10-12K FEET. BASE COULD BE LOWER WHEN
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS...MAINLY OVER LINCOLN
AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST MAINLY ACROSS
UTAH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH WINDS TO
FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
BEING ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH IN THIS
AREA ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO BELOW 15
PERCENT AND DRY FUELS MAY COMBINE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE
CONDITIONS FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COLORADO RIVER
ZONES.

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NVZ466.
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AZZ101.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CAZ229.
&&

$$

JENSEN/SALMEN

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